Planning for Brexit at the end of the year is harder than planning for no-deal in advance of Brexit day.

Why?

Because before there were only 4 distinct outcomes:
- Cancel A50 and stay
- Extend A50 period
- Leave with transition period
- Leave with no deal

3 out of those 4 outcomes meant no change in the short term.

So the UK government knew the only scenario it had to prep for was no deal.

On the one hand very hard to prep for (mitigation measures can't blunt all the pain).

On the other hand it was a clearly defined problem.

But now things are different!

If we don't extend transition, then from 1 January 2021 we have to face two different scenarios:
- full Brexit, but with some sort of deal
- full Brexit, but with no deal

Suddenly, the Government can't plan for a specific outcome any more.

Except it's worse than that.

The Government could (and probably should) tell businesses to plan for no deal.

But that will cost firms a fortune and highlight how damaging Brexit risks being.

Or it can do what it does now, which is to provide a wishy-washy range of advice.

This *might* happen, but not if we get a deal that covers it.
That *might* happen, but not if we get a deal that covers it.
etc.

So businesses will have to use their "common sense" and appetite for risk to decide how to respond to the challenge.

Sound familiar?!