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We may see more gvt imposed lockdowns soon and those will not go well. But the real lockdown, the real contraction, will take place when Americans refuse to participate in the economy. Right now the assumption is that America is just a corralled stallion just (1)
champing at the bit to be set free. That, to a degree is true but it’s not completely true. Most of it is driven by the reality of mortgages, rent, car payments and all the other bills folks are getting behind on. Right now sheriff’s are still serving evictions and (2)
and repo guys are still pulling cars. Utilities in some locals have paused shutoffs but only temporarily. And bill collectors are still dialing the phone. But if these numbers grown as I expect them too and especially if the death numbers increase(and they will) things(3)
will change dramatically. Some folks already have tapped out. As resources become limited for municipalities the roles of evictions become less important. Tax revenue is drying up daily. Utilities are going to become the sole purpose for county operations. People will begin (4)
to homestead their locations whether they own them or not because banks and landlords won’t have the manpower(private evictors?) to remove them. Our economic engine is about to wind down because the underlying things that drive it(personal debt and upward expansion)(5)
will flounder as people begin to go into castle mode. That reverberates outward as those folks who drive the trucks, stock the stores and keep the economic engines grease suffer the same pressures. It will soon become more about holding on than reaching out. By the fall (6)
when the flu joins in with Covid and hospitalizations become more about triage than treatment thethings that make everything hold together will disappear.
It isn’t hard to see how the foundations fall, it’s much more difficult to discern what life without foundations look like.
It isn’t hard to see how the foundations fall, it’s much more difficult to discern what life without foundations look like.
