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2nd round of municipal elections in France. First round was held on March 15, and 2nd round was held off because of COVID-19. Less than 40% of French was asked back to the polls. First lesson : COVID means very low participation= close to 60% abstention https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2020/06/28/elections-municipales-2020-les-principaux-resultats-du-second-tour-par-commune_6044473_823448.html
First results indicate 3 trends:
- major disappointment everywhere for Macron's party, which fails to anchor itself locally
- National Rally keeps its hold on cities, adds Perpignan to the mix but fails to expand much
- Greens gain ground everywhere, Strasburg, Lyon, Lille (TBC)
- major disappointment everywhere for Macron's party, which fails to anchor itself locally
- National Rally keeps its hold on cities, adds Perpignan to the mix but fails to expand much
- Greens gain ground everywhere, Strasburg, Lyon, Lille (TBC)
- Center-right LR does not outperform
- Socialists maintain some of their holds, in particular Paris, with help of Greens. Wherever they united with Greens, Socialists were stronger. Printemps Marseillais, coalition of leftist/green movements did fantastic in Marseille.
- Socialists maintain some of their holds, in particular Paris, with help of Greens. Wherever they united with Greens, Socialists were stronger. Printemps Marseillais, coalition of leftist/green movements did fantastic in Marseille.
This is the story tonight: there is a movement towards the structuration of a green-progressive left, that continues to grow locally, while the nationalist right keeps its strength. Macron fares poorly in this configuration.
Macron's underperformance is rooted in the lack of local anchoring of his political party En Marche, and aggravated by the last 4 months. As @BlochAgneska and I wrote, when France re-opened after lockdown, the mood was apprehensive and unhappy with Macron https://twitter.com/BlochAgneska/status/1274361725844967425
Overall, then, these elections have confirmed one of the lessons of the 2019 European elections, i.e. greens are gaining ground. However, the political consequences of this vote will be mitigated by the fact that abstention was so high and the vote concerned so few people.
Macron himself will try to jump over the results, minimizing them, and has already announced he intends to reorient his mandate because of COVID, and NOT because of the municipal elections.
On Monday, Macron will host the citizen convention for climate, and will have to announce which of their proposals he intend to act on. A unique occasion to demonstrate his newfound commitment to ecology. https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/06/21/convention-citoyenne-pour-le-climat-les-principales-propositions-votees_6043638_3244.html
Soon after, Macron will announce his priorities for the rest of his presidency (almost 2 years left). He has already previewed some of the themes he intend to push: sovereignism, green economy, and decentralization. https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2020/06/14/adresse-aux-francais-14-juin-2020
Indeed, green is in vogue: 57% of French see the main “lesson” of coronavirus to be "that we have not sufficiently respected the natural world" (Ipsos, 26-31 May). https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/barometre-covid-19-relachement-de-lapplication-des-gestes-barrieres-mesure-que-lepidemie-ralentit
As for the method of Macron's reorientation, there are many rumors: consultative referendum? A reduction of government, with less ministers ? Change of Prime Minister? PM Edouard Philippe has been reelected mayor of Le Havre, he might want out.
Foreign Minister Le Drian (ex Socialist) talked about as potential replacement. But a woman would be a welcome change for Macron. Defense minister Florence Parly? Climate champion Laurence Tubiana? Many rumors, but this remains the best kept secret. Macron might not know it yet.
