France voting ends soon. Qs:

1) Paris: Will Socialist/Green coalition secure reelection after drawing global with its pro-housing, anti-car agenda?
2) Macron’s centrist party had high hopes that collapsed. Will they get any win of note? 2 of biggest shots bc left didn’t ally.

3) Left hopes to gain 2nd thru 4th biggest cities to add to Paris.

(Technically won Lyon in past, but mayor swung to Macron & now to right. Relevant nationwide: many of left parties’ centrist pols joined Macron, so a left win today would be electing slightly leftier leaders.)

4) Traditional conservatives collapsed in 2017 (much like the traditional center-left) with Macron’s rise. But now they too are solidifying local power, maybe expanding: they’re main rival to left in most biggest cities (often bc of Macron fading or frequently allying with them).

5) Maybe the single most novel & dynamic: Green Party is surging and becoming a/the leading center-left force. It supplanted the Socialist Party and forced alliances behind itself and is in a position to win its biggest cities ever—incl. Lyon and uber-tight Toulouse.

6) Le Pen’s far-right did overall more poorly than last time, failing to make runoff in many places it used to (you need to get 10% in R1). But also looking strong to keep most towns it won last time—and potentially gain a new biggest city (Perpignan).

Responses in an hour!

Early tea leaves being insistently hinted at by the media on TV (who aren’t allowed to reveal any results but know things) indicate at least a Green Party wave.

JUST IN: Historic win for France’s Green Party: they won power in Lyon, county’s 3rd biggest city & biggest power they’ve ever won.

Center-left had won here last time—but the centrist mayor switched to join Macron, & then panicked & allied with the right too. So loss for center.

Wow, huge gains for the Greens keep coming throughout France.

In Strasbourg (east), Left had failed to unite & had 2 candidates in the 3-way runoff (vs Macron’s party). The Green edged ahead.

(Also—it seems like it’s looking very good for left/Hidalgo in Paris.)

Socialist Party, that looked on verge of death after last pres. race, has won biggest race of night (in alliance with Greens): Paris.

(Also part of Green win in Lyon, alongside Melanchon too)

Also keeps many cities—Nantes, Rouen, Dijon, apparently Lille. https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1277317366649511936

The right gets a big win: Toulouse, country’s fourth city, looked poised to fall to Greens—but despite the Green wave elsewhere, the right keeps it. They did this thanks to Macron’s party choosing to ally with the right (over the left, & over neutrality), as in most big cities.

Shock result in Bordeaux, the wine capital.

Greens win (in alliance with other left parties): first left victory here in decades.

The right & Macron had allied here to block the left (which remained a bit divided), so city looked hard to flip. But now it adds to Green wave.

A note: Even in cities that the left coalitions *kept* (e.g. Paris), they're doing so with majorities that will be more left-leaning than in the prior elections.

Why? A chunk of moderates in Greens or Socialist Party left to join Macron in 2017. And they lost/were ousted now.

Example: Socialist Party won in 2014 in one of leftier "boroughs" of Paris (20th), & Calandra became borough head. Then she switched to Macron, & was part of HIS party's bid this year. Socialists logically won borough again—so Calandra now out.

Or Lyon: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1277312260311060487

It's hard to find what Macron could point to as good results for his party (LREM).

Biggest Macronist win is his Prime Minister (in Le Havre), who's never joined LREM.

Huge defeats either in R1 or in runoff in most places they ran candidates; loss of Lyon, its biggest city.

Macron's party chose to:
a. support incumbents from various parties from getgo (helping other parties breathe in exchange for some seats)
b. run solo, & typically lost huge (often 4th/5th)
c. in final stretch, ally with right to block Greens (& failed most places except Toulouse)

Liberation (France's main left-leaning daily) makes its cover page the Green Wave.

Headline: "Ecology is on the Move [En Marche]"

That's a play on "En Marche", which is the name of the party that Emmanuel Macron created. A name grounded in Macron's initials (EM), bc of course.

Some confusion in Marseille, 2nd biggest city governed by the right for decades.

Left coalition wins city-wide. But there's a complex electoral-college-like-meets-proportionality system here, *&* a breakaway left candidate that may ally with right in one borough, so it'll be