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. @davidbeckmann thanks for asking! Thread to follow on how I'm thinking about the recent trends in #FoodInsecurity in light of this week's @JasonDeParle NYT story. https://twitter.com/davidbeckmann/status/1277055465600532480
Congress has smartly increased relief payments to individuals during COVID-19:
expanded UI -- both $600 weekly payments and a new program those who don't usually get UI
paid max SNAP benefits to all
new P-EBT program to replace missed school meals
cash relief payments
expanded UI -- both $600 weekly payments and a new program those who don't usually get UI
paid max SNAP benefits to all
new P-EBT program to replace missed school meals
cash relief payments
How are we still seeing so much unmet need?
#FoodInsecurity has at least doubled
@laurenlbauer finds 1 in 6 families w/kids say that their kids sometimes/often weren't eating enough b/c the family couldn't afford enough food.
#FeedingAmerica says demand at food pantries 2X usual
#FoodInsecurity has at least doubled
@laurenlbauer finds 1 in 6 families w/kids say that their kids sometimes/often weren't eating enough b/c the family couldn't afford enough food.
#FeedingAmerica says demand at food pantries 2X usual
One big reason is *timing*.
Poverty is based on annual income, so $ today and $ in 3 months both "count" the same.
But lots of families don't have credit/savings, so $ in 3 months means not enough $ for food today.
Poverty is based on annual income, so $ today and $ in 3 months both "count" the same.
But lots of families don't have credit/savings, so $ in 3 months means not enough $ for food today.
It is completely consistent to see suffering in the short run even if eventual payments mean that the annual poverty rate is unchanged.
But one shouldn't walk away and conclude "all is OK" even if the poverty projections turn out to be right.
But one shouldn't walk away and conclude "all is OK" even if the poverty projections turn out to be right.
Remember, in that article, 4 of 6 interviewees reported having trouble affording food! https://twitter.com/JasonDeParle/status/1275537941264314374?s=20
For example, the P-EBT program that provides $ for missed school meals is a great idea, but took a while to launch. Families are getting back payments, which will reduce annual poverty. But meals missed in March & April still caused suffering.
Second, outside of UI, the payments have been relatively modest. Even at max benefits, SNAP is ~$43/week per person -- which doesn't stretch as far when kids are out of school, etc.
(insert plea to Senate for increased SNAP benefits here! 15% would make a big difference!)
(insert plea to Senate for increased SNAP benefits here! 15% would make a big difference!)
Third, some (esp. low-income) fall thru cracks in UI system. Many immigrants for sure. More wonky, expansions for self-employed & others under the PUA program have been slow to pay out. Hopefully as those backlogs clear more will receive payments.
More wonk: data are sparse on who is getting UI payments, we are doing the best we can to understand. We'll know more in coming weeks w/more data; lots of economists tracking this, lots of confusion.
More deets in my #BPEA presentation from Thurs. here: https://www.brookings.edu/events/webinar-special-edition-bpea-2020-covid-19-and-the-economy/
More deets in my #BPEA presentation from Thurs. here: https://www.brookings.edu/events/webinar-special-edition-bpea-2020-covid-19-and-the-economy/
Furthermore, the study written up in the Times is a simulation. A careful one, but LOTS of assumptions are in there (some of which I disagree with). The authors agree w/ this themselves. https://twitter.com/ZParolin/status/1274905442095857666?s=20
To be fair, here's what skeptics say in response.
1. The survey evidence on #FoodInsecurity is misleading. Why? Response rates are low in all current surveys, may reflect unusual/biased samples.
And this is true -- surveying during a global pandemic is not easy!
1. The survey evidence on #FoodInsecurity is misleading. Why? Response rates are low in all current surveys, may reflect unusual/biased samples.
And this is true -- surveying during a global pandemic is not easy!
What about all the lines at food pantries then?
Some argue it's not entirely increased need: stigma from going to a food pantry may be lower now, the time cost of waiting in line is low since so many unemployed.
That, er, may be possible to some *limited* extent I guess.
Some argue it's not entirely increased need: stigma from going to a food pantry may be lower now, the time cost of waiting in line is low since so many unemployed.
That, er, may be possible to some *limited* extent I guess.
Overall, there are things we know to be generally true:
the poor suffer more during recessions -- taking longer to regain lost employment, less ability to smooth consumption
our safety net has many holes, esp during recessions
families w/kids hit especially hard now
the poor suffer more during recessions -- taking longer to regain lost employment, less ability to smooth consumption
our safety net has many holes, esp during recessions
families w/kids hit especially hard now
Congress made policy changes that have alleviated suffering -- it COULD BE WORSE! And those have to be continued in various forms until the economy recovers.
I'm super grateful for the work of food pantries to feed our neighbors now -- but this rate is not sustainable.
I'm super grateful for the work of food pantries to feed our neighbors now -- but this rate is not sustainable.
In sum: I think there's a lot of evidence of suffering in the U.S. right now.
It's been made better by policy, & will be worse if a strong policy response isn't continued.
There's a lot that's unknown; I (& others) will keep trying to understand truth in the midst of this mess.
It's been made better by policy, & will be worse if a strong policy response isn't continued.
There's a lot that's unknown; I (& others) will keep trying to understand truth in the midst of this mess.
Hope this helps, @davidbeckmann. Keep up your good work, and happy to talk more.
