The Russia bounty story is getting a ton of play—understandably so. Here are a few thoughts:

1. Horrendous. But I wouldn’t expect anything else from the Russians. They are opportunistic and sly. Bleeding U.S. & coalition forces in Afghanistan is an opportunity.
2. The Taliban don’t need bounties for motivation. The group has been fighting since 1994 and will continue to fight whether or not U.S. troops are in Afghanistan.

3. The timing of the leak is interesting. Is this a way to get Trump to hit pause on a troop withdrawal?
4. Story comes as U.S. and Russian officials met last week for talks on strategic stability issues. I could see the Trump administration using the bounties as one more reason to kill New START (why should we trust the Russians if they’re trying to kill our troops?!).
5. Russia policy will now be even more politicized. Any outreach to the Kremlin on any topic, no matter how minor, will be condemned.

6. Calls for U.S. retaliation will grow (we’re already hearing it), but 90% of the options floated will be ineffective or dangerous.
7) Expect Max Boot and Jennifer Rubin to spend the next week making this a Trump-centric story.

8) Lawmakers introduce more sanctions bills on Moscow, which has become a Beltway tradition.

9) Biden will try to out-hawk Trump.

10) The EU will fiddle.
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