hey josh,

happy to help you understand thorchain better. you haven't missed the boat!

the most important thing to recognize is that activity is on $eth but purchasing power and swap volume is not

let me walk you through an example below of how i think about $rune value https://twitter.com/joshuahjohnson/status/1276500070016249858

- total crypto market cap – $264.5bn
- $25bn in $eth, $6.5bn in #defi tokens – $31.5bn
- so that's $233bn sitting idle outside ethereum

if 1% of those idle assets are added to thorchain to earn yield, that's $2.3bn deposited in @thorchain_org

the value of $rune is tied to the value of its deposited assets, in a 1:3 ratio. so the value of $rune is always 3x the value of deposited assets. if $1 is deposited, $rune is worth $3.

so if $2.3bn of digital assets swarms into thorchain, seeking yield, that means...

$rune's market cap sky rockets to $6.9bn!

so yeah, sitting here at a $63m $rune market cap, you really haven't missed the boat i think that's a thousand bagger – 1000x

what's more...

that $6.3bn might be a conservative figure – it's highly likely that more than 1% of assets, currently totally stagnant, are going to be attracted to yields from liquidity provision.

if you're holding $xmr, making precisely ZERO dollars a year on it, any yield is going to be attractive. let alone ~10% a year (maybe even more?)

BUT THERE'S MORE
shit when did i become an infomercial creator

we're not even taking cashflows into account. $rune gives direct access to fees which are earning when users swap assets – this includes arbitrageurs and normal pleb swappers

according to coingecko, a low-average volume of crypto trades currently sits at $~40bn per day

again, using our magic conservative 1% number, if @thorchain_org takes 1% of that volume it's doing $400m per day. annualized that's ~$20.8bn.

there's no central entity so that's profit. if these volumes are hit, expect multiples of that valuation, on top of the book value.

i'm genuinely trying to be conservative here, but if you want to let your imagination run wild a bit, @compoundfinance $comp token is currently trading at a 2083x multiple of earnings. makes me feel a bit faint just thinking about it

and holy shit there's even more to think about. firstly, these numbers were conservative – 1% of market cap locked in the first opportunity to yield for billions dollars worth of assets? 1% of volume for the first cross-chain kyc-less dex with xmr attached?

but even more than that, we are EARLY in the crypto game. a TINY bull market, compared to last, would double industry market caps and volumes. a MODEST bull market would see them permanently increased by orders of magnitude.

i'm not filling in all the gaps here but @joshuahjohnson, you HAVE NOT missed the boat!

happy to answer any more questions or work through any examples if you have them.

i recommend meeting the nice folks in telegram too https://t.me/thorchain_org