Read on Twitter
Absent a near-total reversal of political trends, Donald Trump is going to lose—in all likelihood decisively—to Joe Biden in November.
How will historians remember the Trump administration?
How will historians remember the Trump administration?
I suspect the dominant frame—at least initially—is going to be one of fecklessness and weakness.
It’s hard not to rate a president dogged by scandal, impeached by the House, and then (hopefully) unceremoniously dumped by the voters as anything other than a political failure.
It’s hard not to rate a president dogged by scandal, impeached by the House, and then (hopefully) unceremoniously dumped by the voters as anything other than a political failure.
But...
The flip side—and this is I think going to be the key historiographical argument, not just over the Trump administration but the broader American right—is one of remarkable political durability.
Donald Trump is easily the most corrupt and incompetent president in American history, but who nevertheless retained the support of his party and his voters through *at least* the summer of 2020.
He survived impeachment, nullified congressional oversight, and packed the courts.
He survived impeachment, nullified congressional oversight, and packed the courts.
Even if Trump goes down in popular memory like Hoover—and that’s looking increasingly plausible—the question will remain:
How did a man like that manage to get so far, and accumulate so much power?
How did a man like that manage to get so far, and accumulate so much power?
I suspect that when all is said and done, the chief historical legacy of the Trump administration will be just how badly it exposed the dysfunction of the American political system and American culture more broadly.
This is going to be a contested point, because if Trump leaves office peacefully in January 2021 it will be held up as the ultimate proof of the system “working.”
The focal point of debate for at least a decade is whether or not this is actually true.
The focal point of debate for at least a decade is whether or not this is actually true.
But let’s just take one issue to test this: impeachment power.
The Trump administration has decisively proven that, in the current American political system, impeachment power is for all intents and purposes irrelevant.
The Trump administration has decisively proven that, in the current American political system, impeachment power is for all intents and purposes irrelevant.
If the successful use of the impeachment power is contingent on the opposition party controlling the House, two-thirds of the Senate, and the sympathy of five SCOTUS justices, then what is the point of that statutory power in the first place?
This is of course true, and speaks to the broader story of political dysfunction and institutional decay.
Which is why I reject—on the impeachment question alone—the argument that the American political system is “working” to any meaningful degree. https://twitter.com/grylxndr/status/1276484860119572480?s=20
Which is why I reject—on the impeachment question alone—the argument that the American political system is “working” to any meaningful degree. https://twitter.com/grylxndr/status/1276484860119572480?s=20
Take the opposition party.
Senior Democrats pretty clearly believe that their best means for combating Trump is to sit back, do nothing, let the country fall apart under his watch and reap the electoral benefits in 2020.
Senior Democrats pretty clearly believe that their best means for combating Trump is to sit back, do nothing, let the country fall apart under his watch and reap the electoral benefits in 2020.
The political calculus here is—and it’s worth emphasizing this point—*CORRECT.*
But it comes at a dire cost, both in terms of what it does to American political institutions and, more importantly, human lives.
But it comes at a dire cost, both in terms of what it does to American political institutions and, more importantly, human lives.
I don’t know if there was anything realistically the Democratic Party could have done to remove or otherwise nullify Trump over the past three years, but it’s also clear that a lot of options they simply decided not to try.
Again, the broad framework is political dysfunction and institutional failure.
That is how the Trump years will be written about.
That is how the Trump years will be written about.
A politically weak and feckless administration that killed hundreds of thousands—if not millions—of Americans through its own incompetence, but was nevertheless strong enough politically to—despite its incompetence—serve out a full term in office.
