You can’t fit a quart in a pint pot.

A mini thread on the challenge in putting together the fixture list for next season. It’s going to be a power struggle & something is going to have to give.
COVID-19 is brutal. A disease that speeds up evolution & takes the weakest from us. It’s not just people, it’s whole sectors that have fundamental structural problems & businesses.

Football isn’t any different. The weakest clubs are fighting to stay alive.
It’s not just football clubs though that are having to think about their short term survival but also football federations. Put simply, the things that have kept leagues & therefore clubs afloat are all under attack & this will be really shown up in 20/21 season.
So what’s the issue? It’s back to that classic moan, too many fixtures but now there really isn’t enough time.

The season is planned to start the first week of September & for domestic football it has to finish at the end of May due to Euro 2020.....in 2021.
If anybody thought club football would be prioritised this was dismissed last week with the announcement that all of the international fixtures weeks would remain in place. This means before any league games are played in England, Kane & co are off to Iceland & Denmark.
The Premier League are spitting feathers but for FIFA & less so UEFA, these international weeks are essential for funding to the smallest football federations. Without them, the weakest football nations will be removing funding to grass roots & growing participation.
For 7 clubs in England there is also the European competitions, the published fixture list is intense, with the international breaks there is barely a spare week from September through to January. UEFA aren’t budging making this an even bigger challenge to the federations.
For the Premier League, they understand what drives the finances for the clubs. At the top of it is playing fixtures of a weekend so overseas tv rights & sponsorship can be maximised. Playing midweek simply doesn’t bring in as much money.
Starting the season later, keeping in the international dates but finishing the season on time means there are less weekends & the EPL aren’t happy. A solution, does the FA Cup move to a midweek tournament? This is something The FA have been fighting against for years.
The FA Cup is one of the core engines of flowing money through to grassroots clubs. The format, a knockout tournament played on Saturdays, replays midweek & the final played at Wembley, the last domestic game of the season.
The format & timings have been challenged for years by the EPL & the biggest clubs. The money for them is in playing league games of a weekend & playing in European competitions midweek. The FA Cup in 20/21 season is a barrier to them doing this & they want change.
If The FA have a challenge in keeping the FA Cup in a format that is recognisable & generates anything like the cash currently that all flows through to clubs then that is nothing compared to the EFL’s challenge in keeping the League Cup.
The Carabao Cup is a prized possession for the EFL, a knockout tournament involving the biggest clubs in the country, a Wembley final & a European place. It generates big sponsorship money & overseas tv rights for the final which supports the smallest professional clubs.
For the biggest Premier League clubs the League Cup has been a distraction for many years, now it is under real threat as those clubs in Europe cannot see a path to playing fixtures. It’s not just them though, very few of the Premier League clubs want to really be in it.
A potential solution, is that the 7 European clubs will not enter the tournament this season, the trophy will be diluted for 1 season. The push though from the EPL is a fundamental change & that it becomes an U23 tournament for Premier League sides.
They argue that no other major league has 2 cup tournaments & now is the time for change. For the EFL this would be a seismic blow, the loss of a European place, loss in sponsorship, loss of prestige & ultimately less money to clubs who are already on life support machines.
For the EFL, they would surely seek compensation but any short term financial benefit from it will be lost in the medium term as it has a weakened league cup & needs to abandon or rework the EFL Trophy.

So what do I think will happen....
The federations are going to want to work together but the hierarchy & ultimately money will dictate the outcome.
- FIFA will keep in all their international dates.
- UEFA will keep all their Champions League & Europa League dates.
- The Premier League will take every weekend.
- The FA Cup from the 3rd round stage will be a midweek tournament, all teams involved & no replays. The final will remain on a Saturday.
- The League Cup moves to Premier League clubs fielding U23 teams with no European place. Wembley final remains for now.
- The EFL Trophy will involve Scottish clubs & will be for L1 & L2 clubs, no Wembley Final.

Who will be hit most? Undoubtedly it will be those lower down the pyramid, the reduced sponsorship & dilution in both domestic cups will lead to less money.
This may well be packaged up as a 1 year solution. It isn’t. The strongest federations are getting stronger, as are the biggest clubs. All CV-19 has done is allow the ultimately inevitable dilution of the FA Cup & the acceleration of the death of the league cup.
You can follow @calciocarl.
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