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Lots of things to learn from looking at excess deaths.
1. 2020 was a pretty good year for deaths early on, below the average for other years. Why? [1/10]
![Lots of things to learn from looking at excess deaths.1. 2020 was a pretty good year for deaths early on, below the average for other years. Why? [1/10]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbbkBUKVAAM9BUt.jpg "Lots of things to learn from looking at excess deaths.1. 2020 was a pretty good year for deaths early on, below the average for other years. Why? [1/10]")
1. 2020 was a pretty good year for deaths early on, below the average for other years. Why? [1/10]
Temperatures are usually a strong predictor of deaths. Mild winter=fewer deaths. Was this the case?
If true, you'd see excess deaths negative in the Northern Hemisphere (winter) at the beginning of Jan, and neutral in the Southern Hemisphere. This is indeed what we see. [2/10]
![Temperatures are usually a strong predictor of deaths. Mild winter=fewer deaths. Was this the case? If true, you'd see excess deaths negative in the Northern Hemisphere (winter) at the beginning of Jan, and neutral in the Southern Hemisphere. This is indeed what we see. [2/10]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbbkyPwVcAE50ug.jpg "Temperatures are usually a strong predictor of deaths. Mild winter=fewer deaths. Was this the case? If true, you'd see excess deaths negative in the Northern Hemisphere (winter) at the beginning of Jan, and neutral in the Southern Hemisphere. This is indeed what we see. [2/10]")
If true, you'd see excess deaths negative in the Northern Hemisphere (winter) at the beginning of Jan, and neutral in the Southern Hemisphere. This is indeed what we see. [2/10]
What this means is that calculations of #COVID19 excess mortality tend to *undercount* deaths, because the baseline was better than other years. If we think the US has had 145k deaths so far, it probably has had more. [3/10]
Back to our chart:
2. The lines for the US and France go down and pass heavily below 0. When you zoom in, this effect also appears in Italy, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland... [4/10]
![Back to our chart:2. The lines for the US and France go down and pass heavily below 0. When you zoom in, this effect also appears in Italy, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland... [4/10]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbblMLKU0AA270i.jpg "Back to our chart:2. The lines for the US and France go down and pass heavily below 0. When you zoom in, this effect also appears in Italy, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland... [4/10]")
2. The lines for the US and France go down and pass heavily below 0. When you zoom in, this effect also appears in Italy, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland... [4/10]
Why?
My guess: lockdowns have had an unintended consequence. They actually saved lives.
Not just by preventing COVID deaths, but also by saving lives of ppl who would have died in an alternate universe without COVID or lockdowns, just because of unintended consequences of life.
My guess: lockdowns have had an unintended consequence. They actually saved lives.
Not just by preventing COVID deaths, but also by saving lives of ppl who would have died in an alternate universe without COVID or lockdowns, just because of unintended consequences of life.
3. Look at Chile. The situation is pretty dramatic there, in case you haven't heard. They followed the Swedish path of Herd Immunity early on before backtracking. The Health Minister resigned a few days ago. [6/10]
Now let's look at excess deaths. On thing you consistently see is how much cases are undercounted. In the US, 126k official vs 145k excess, in the UK 43k vs. 58k, in Spain 28k vs. 43k... The undercounting has diminished since the beginning, but it's still heavy. [7/10]
![Now let's look at excess deaths. On thing you consistently see is how much cases are undercounted. In the US, 126k official vs 145k excess, in the UK 43k vs. 58k, in Spain 28k vs. 43k... The undercounting has diminished since the beginning, but it's still heavy. [7/10]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbbmEqqVAAEcxd6.jpg "Now let's look at excess deaths. On thing you consistently see is how much cases are undercounted. In the US, 126k official vs 145k excess, in the UK 43k vs. 58k, in Spain 28k vs. 43k... The undercounting has diminished since the beginning, but it's still heavy. [7/10]")
Countries with big early outbreaks have obviously more deaths: Italy, France, Spain. Notice, however, how Italy had an earlier outbreak but Spain has more excess deaths. Was Spain's management worse? The lockdown more delayed than in Italy? [8/10]
Now let's look at deaths per 100k ppl. What can we learn?
1. Germany, Norway and Denmark, through the lockdown, might not just have averted a #COVID19 catastrophe, but might have saved lives compared to an alternate universe without COVID [9/10]
![Now let's look at deaths per 100k ppl. What can we learn?1. Germany, Norway and Denmark, through the lockdown, might not just have averted a #COVID19 catastrophe, but might have saved lives compared to an alternate universe without COVID [9/10]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebbl8xtU8AEjWAo.jpg "Now let's look at deaths per 100k ppl. What can we learn?1. Germany, Norway and Denmark, through the lockdown, might not just have averted a #COVID19 catastrophe, but might have saved lives compared to an alternate universe without COVID [9/10]")
1. Germany, Norway and Denmark, through the lockdown, might not just have averted a #COVID19 catastrophe, but might have saved lives compared to an alternate universe without COVID [9/10]
Spain's and UK's management gets exposed when looking at excess deaths per 100k citizens. Among the worst in the list. In the case of the UK, without excuse since it had one additional week to prepare. [10/10]
