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With 2021 being an election year in #Syria, few outlets have attempted to shed light on this topic.
The decay of the Syrian economy has shifted the focus away from this issue, at a time where it should be at the forefront of analysis
#ElectionThread 1) https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2020/01/2021-elections-entitlement-or-illegal-procedure/
The decay of the Syrian economy has shifted the focus away from this issue, at a time where it should be at the forefront of analysis
#ElectionThread 1) https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2020/01/2021-elections-entitlement-or-illegal-procedure/
While the majority of Syrians and international observers are rightfully dismising the elections as a sham, there are some unqiue dynamics that could make this election the most pivotal since the Ba’athist coup in 1963.
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First: The most obvious one would be the the substantial changes in the political and military situation on the ground.
2021 is not 2014 anymore. ISIS has been all but defeated, and Damascus has largely been able to retake most of Syria’s territory.
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2021 is not 2014 anymore. ISIS has been all but defeated, and Damascus has largely been able to retake most of Syria’s territory.
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While article 88 of the Syrian constitution prohibits an incumbent president from running a third consecutive term, this rule was disregarded in the 2014 election due to the country being at in a civil war and in a ‘National Crisis’ which allowed Assad to run a third term.
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It is quite plausible that Assad will continue to play this narrative and keep the country fragmented in order to be allowed to run for a 5th unconstitutional term given that it is almost impossible for Damascus to retake N.E Syria militarily, and as such, remain at war.
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4th unconstitutional term*
Yet, the changes on the ground have also translated into significant geopolitical developments between Assad’s two major foreign backers - Iran & Russia
Moscow has signaled that a political solution without Assad is a plausible, while Tehran is standing firmly with Assad.
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Moscow has signaled that a political solution without Assad is a plausible, while Tehran is standing firmly with Assad.
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Second: Moscow is becoming increasingly frustrated with Assad’s domestic policy, with corruption being a key factor for Syria’s economic demise. After 5 years of substantial military, political, & economic support, Russia wants a return of investment
9) https://www.mei.edu/publications/russia-signals-growing-dissatisfaction-syrias-assad-regime
9) https://www.mei.edu/publications/russia-signals-growing-dissatisfaction-syrias-assad-regime
Assad himself has stated that “anybody can run” for the election, however the current criterias that candidates have to meet in order to be admited into the race is extremely narrow and sidelines the majority of possible candidates, both home & abroad
6) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-election/syrias-assad-anybody-will-be-able-to-run-at-2021-election-idUSKBN1XL0RK
6) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-election/syrias-assad-anybody-will-be-able-to-run-at-2021-election-idUSKBN1XL0RK
With over half of the country’s population (12 million) being either internally displaced, forced into exile, or in refuge outside the nation, the pool of potential candidates that can legally meet the current constitution’s criteria’s is severly restricted.
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Third: since the passing of the #CaesarAct Moscow has began exerting immense pressure on Damascus in order to force it to seriously engage with the UN sponsored Constitutional Committee, BEFORE the 2021 elections
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http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/17/c_139144460.htm
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http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/17/c_139144460.htm
