California is seeing a troubling surge in coronavirus. The number of sick people is really climbing in many parts of the state. There are a lot of stats floating around, so I'm going to try to explain what's going on

Overall, cases and hospitalizations are spiking in California. Over the past two weeks, the number of people in the hospital with COVID in California has risen 32%. That's the most reliable metric for judging an outbreak's trajectory, and we're seeing a huge increase.

Last week, the state broke its record for how many people tested positive in a single day, crossing 4k for the first time. Yesterday, more than 7k people tested positive for COVID. The % of people testing positive is rising too, so this isn't just the result of increased testing

The increases are driven by counties where things are particularly bad. These include LA, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Contra Costa and more. The full list of worrisome counties the state is monitoring: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/CountyMonitoringDataStep2.aspx

Hospitalizations are increasing most in San Joaquin County, followed by Sacramento, Stanislaus, Santa Clara, Kern, Fresno, Imperial, Ventura and Contra Costa. Case rates are highest in Imperial, followed by Kings and LA. Those metrics are here: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyDataTable.aspx

Overall, California has the 29th highest rate of deaths due to coronavirus nationwide and the 32nd highest rate of cases, so pretty average. But that could quickly change if these spikes continue or worsen. While many states' numbers are declining, California's are soaring.

Why is this happening? No one knows for sure, but officials say it could be linked to reopenings, protests or people just being less careful in general. Probably a mix of all three. There also seems to be an element of bad luck, since this isn't being seen in every state.

This has left us in a very confusing place, where public officials are both telling people to stay home but also allowing things to reopen. They expected a surge connected to the reopenings -- I think the question is whether this surge will grow enough to make them pull back.

For people in LA: LA County remains the center of the state's outbreak and case numbers are rising here, as are hospitalizations. But the rise in hospitalizations isn't big enough to be considered worrisome yet, according to metrics set by officials. https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/#patients

One of the most useful metrics is the % of people tested who come back positive for the virus. It's basically telling you how prevalent the virus is in your community. The highest recently have been Imperial (22%) and Stanislaus (11%). The state overall is just over 5%.

OK so what does all of this add up to? Basically the same stuff we've always known. Wear your mask, stay 6-feet away from people, wash your hands and stay home when you're sick. Limit yourself to doing essential things only.