"Looking across categories of card spending, we find that the level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks," via JPM

"Interestingly, we also find that higher spending in supermarkets predicts slower spread of the virus, hinting that high levels of supermarket spending are indicative of more careful social distancing in a state"

"For example, as of three weeks ago, supermarket spending was up 20% or more from last year’s levels in New York and New Jersey, while it was up less than 10% in Texas and Arizona"

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"Elsewhere...we note that recent rebounds in spending in states like New York have been concentrated somewhat among Millennial and Gen Z cardholders and in card-present spending, suggesting that younger generations are leading the way in returning to normal offline life"