1/10
Covid-19 has gone down. A lot. The estimated number of infections in London is less than 1,000 (compared to +1million in April) - this is around the level in early March - the days when we still shook hands 🤝, hugged 🫂, kissed 💋 and licked 😛 each other
2/10
There was a lot of anger & anxiety over the last few weeks that people were (rightly ✊🏿) not following the rules and the easing of restrictions was politically motivated 👓. But there is not yet any sign of this in the data - infections and deaths have continued to fall...
3/10
The increase in testing would suggest that any new cases would be picked up better than previously - the rate of discovery has fallen a lot since April 📉
4/10
The evidence suggests less than 10% of the population have had the disease - no herd immunity yet. So the big and unanswered question is what has changed that has seemingly slowed the spread of the disease? And are the beaches of Bournemouth safe? https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1276152041673457670?s=20
5/10
Without more data ( @PHE_uk for the good of humanity, up your #OpenData game!) it is hard to tell, but here are some thoughts:
1- people are congregating, but avoiding getting too close #nokissing
2- summer sun is killing covid quickly when airborne #covidsunscissors
...
6/10
3- people protesting all young and asymptomatic #YoungAndAsymptomatic
4- people are wearing protection and maintain good hygiene #protection
5- people more prone to catching it & showing symptoms in urban centres have had it already #bimodalherdimmunity
...
7/10
6- the infection vectors (London Underground, Cheltenham, cricket, etc) have not yet been switched back on #offvector
7- there is a secret task force of furloughed workers cleaning the streets of London and other hotspots #furclean
...
8/10
It does feel that society has achieved something unexpected by the science - so far. A second wave also seems less likely for now.

Phase 2 will be more personal - individual and localised outbreaks - amid an environment of concern for what will happen this winter.
9/10
What does this mean for the #NHS:
- improve infection control
- get to grips with the backlog
- prepare for the winter (I fear that a second lockdown is even less likely than a second wave)
10/10
thanks @edge_health_ and @ChristianMoroy for help on the above!
You can follow @georgebatchelor.
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