As Tesla talks down its delivery numbers, here’s a thread that shows why anything <100k cars in this environment is a turrrible read on $TSLA fundamentals & the myth of a 1mm + annual market for the 3/hatchback

I'm at 83-87k for the Q .

1/ https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/1276014196191227904

First, $TSLA had a 14k excess inventory build in q1 that should be delivered in Q2 per company

2/

Next, ignoring the trickle of production $TSLA did during closure, we had ½+Q of production

If we put current Fremont capacity at 400k, (490k stated by Tesla), to account for "Y" ramp, we get 50k cars produced and sold.

So Fremont + Excess inventory = 64k conservatively

3/

Next we have Shanghai, which should be producing 4k by mid year per $TSLA claim in late April. If we conservatively estimate they did 3k/week, open for whole Q, that is ~40k more cars.

So Excess inventory (14) + Fremont (50) + Shanghai (40) = conservatively 104k cars

4/

If actual demand for the 3 + 3 hatchback is anywhere near 1mm units annually, $TSLA should have no problem moving 100k of the cars with global auto sales in Q down < 25%.

Worse, we currently have stock, not flow demand, for the Y, which doesn't repeat

5/

But, there's more.

During the Q, $TSLA slashed prices across the resort & resorted to other "unsustainable" gimmicks in order to move the cars/production they had.

Let's start with China, which saw another 6% price cut

6/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/tesla-to-cut-prices-in-china-again-as-competition-heats-up

North America, & Europe? $TSLA slashed prices by 6-15% & is offering further discounts on top.

For those that claim they can do this bc of "efficiency", I ask why remove all promised & accrued Performance bonuses?

7/

https://twitter.com/TeeKay_EV/status/1275889034825551875?s=20

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-cut-car-prices-heres-what-wall-street-is-saying-51590685199?mod=bol-social-tw

But there's more promotion, $TSLA is hurting its future cash generating ability by bringing something back two days after Elon said never again. .

On top of additional discounts on SlaughterPilot et al.

In short, >100k or there's trouble in Fremont

8/8 https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1275781642666356738?s=20