One thing that is striking is that hotspots crater after only a small % of the total population has symptomatic COVID, and only a small % have even evidence of exposure by serology. This is what we need to really study. This is a big unanswered puzzle.

9/

I’ll make a bold (but hopeful prediction): Major hotspots like NY, Wuhan, Lombardy, may have 2nd waves. But even without a vaccine, I don’t think the magnitude of the second wave or loss of life will be anywhere close to the first.

But this doesnt mean we relax precautions

10/

We still absolutely need the fundamentals: Testing, tracing, universal masks, avoid indoor crowds, social distance as much as possible, hand hygeine.

Coz COVID is so dangerous that even if a small % of a state gets it, it will wreak havoc & lead to unbearable loss of life

11/

Thanks to @subatomicdoc for pointing me in the direction of http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
By @profwade_