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how to lie with numbers: california edition
the golden state has come under massive fire for case counts. but does it mean what they claim it does?
no.
cases are up because testing is up
it's either mendacity or innumeracy
neither is a quality one looks for in a news source
the golden state has come under massive fire for case counts. but does it mean what they claim it does?
no.
cases are up because testing is up
it's either mendacity or innumeracy
neither is a quality one looks for in a news source
ok, you might say, but that's nearly 3 months of data. what if we zoom in?
fair question. let's try.
since may began, testing is up 475% vs cases up 288%
still not seeing an issue here.
test any given population more, you find more cases.
this is elementary sampling math
fair question. let's try.
since may began, testing is up 475% vs cases up 288%
still not seeing an issue here.
test any given population more, you find more cases.
this is elementary sampling math
still too long?
OK. since june began, testing is up 84%. cases are up 72%.
this is still ALL testing driven and then some.
so just where is the crisis?
OK. since june began, testing is up 84%. cases are up 72%.
this is still ALL testing driven and then some.
so just where is the crisis?
still too long?
here's the data since mid-month.
testing up 28.2%, cases up 27.8%.
i mean, if you wanna get really hysterical, you can say "cases were up 4% yesterday vs 3% testing rise!" but does that actually mean anything?
or is is noise? or is it lag?
here's the data since mid-month.
testing up 28.2%, cases up 27.8%.
i mean, if you wanna get really hysterical, you can say "cases were up 4% yesterday vs 3% testing rise!" but does that actually mean anything?
or is is noise? or is it lag?
there has clearly been inflow to CA from mexico. this is why new cases are concentrated so heavily by the border.
and they are getting better at testing and finding hotpots, esp among the migrant seasonal farm workers who have been (legally and illegally) flowing in.
and they are getting better at testing and finding hotpots, esp among the migrant seasonal farm workers who have been (legally and illegally) flowing in.
pro tip:
by this stage in the game, anyone discussing case counts without reference to testing levels is either pushing a fear agenda or simply too stupid to be listened to on any matter involving math.
this is pitifully clear and to have not grasped it by now is ridiculous.
by this stage in the game, anyone discussing case counts without reference to testing levels is either pushing a fear agenda or simply too stupid to be listened to on any matter involving math.
this is pitifully clear and to have not grasped it by now is ridiculous.
yet the media keeps shrieking hysterically about "huge rise in cases!" and demanding the state close.
this panics people and people pressure governors (most of whom are cowards)
welcome back to needless restrictions
this is a feedback loop driven by ad sales, not epidemiology
this panics people and people pressure governors (most of whom are cowards)
welcome back to needless restrictions
this is a feedback loop driven by ad sales, not epidemiology
please note once more that i have screenshot this, not linked it as i do not want to feed the troll.
let's not click on this fear driven clickbait. modern media is instantly responsive. we click, they make more.
clicking on things you think are stupid makes the world stupid
let's not click on this fear driven clickbait. modern media is instantly responsive. we click, they make more.
clicking on things you think are stupid makes the world stupid
the only way to get online media to stop churning out the scare stories that panic the unwary and make #Karen strut around with her self-righteous bossypants on is to stop clicking on them.
so please think before you reward these tactics.
the world you improve may be your own.
so please think before you reward these tactics.
the world you improve may be your own.
