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OK. So this is a HUGELY important topic for everyone with an interest in #AugmentedReality #VR #XR or whatever you want to call it. I do feel it's a bit of a side comment on my post about Apple Glass launch date projections. But let's dive a bit deeper /1 https://shodu.net/when-will-apple-launch-ar-glasses-and-why-it-matters/ https://twitter.com/gemisisDev/status/1275938721750122497
First, AR is not homogenous. There are all kinds of use cases, from industrial (just in time training, real-time tracking, instrumentation etc) to games to way finding to retail to social activism or community building /2
What Gerald is driving at is an important point, and one I endorse: don't wait, don't worry about what future devices will or will not include. Just start building. BUT, if you're trying to build or manage a business then not speculating about the future is ridiculous /3
Gerald's view is a tactical one. If you're a developer, great - just make stuff, learn from it, prototype, build code. If you do that, you'll be well-positioned for whatever future arises. Personally, I also come at this from the level of strategy. /4
If you care about strategy, if you care about how your business will change, or if you worry about what future developments will mean for your industry, then you ignore the future at your peril. It is IMPERATIVE that you try to road map what will happen next. /5
Maybe Gerald's tweet is solely targeted to developers. So that's fine. But you need to say so. But I talk to CEOs and marketing guys and non-profits. They want to know: "how much time do I have before my world is turned upside down again"? /6
Now, there's a second level to what he's saying. And it's critically important: because there I totally agree with him that there are two "threads": one thread is an immersive XR future. It's the one we all expected Magic Leap to provide, and which is available now in VR /7
It's focused on magic and immersion and blurring the lines between what the brain sees as "real". VR is a good place to understand this future. It's an amazing place to prototype and learn new skills. /8
The second thread is one in which computing is more ambient, but it's everywhere. The "visual" side is less important. Instead, the world has been mapped, and we are given light visual nudges. The AR Cloud turns the world itself into an interface /9
Working in Google Glass is a, well, sort of ridiculous proposal. It's not the way to really grok what this world will look like. But how DO we imagine what this world will look like? You have a few options /10
One of them is speculation and scenario planning. You SHOULD try to figure out what Apple, and Facebook and Snapchat and North and ML will do. Because the UX design hasn't been done yet! We have immersive UX but we have very very little for AR Cloud/spatial computing /11
You get a tiny hint of this from #WWDC - those keyless cars. Your car just opens. It just starts. You can even share a key with a friend. But how far can this kind of tech go? What would it look like if it was in your glasses? /12
What will those glasses do, and what tech will they contain? What could they do NOW if they were launched? What can Nreal do or how far did Magic Leap get? All of these questions, and understanding the timelines for when they will happen matter /13
Spatial computing isn't something we can fully understand today. I won't be able to understand it from Google Glass or developing a game on a Quest. I need to look at this question through a whole bunch of lenses :P /14
So let me give one more example. Out of left field. A new version of IOS comes out. It has some privacy controls. My business is built around advertising. (It isn't but this is just an example). So I sit around and say: "OK good, all done". /15
And then another version of iOS comes out and Apple tightens privacy EVEN MORE. My business is dealt a body blow. Now, I COULD have just kept building based on what's here TODAY. But I probably would have been wise to project forward and guess what Apple would do next. /16
How we interpret the future takes many shapes. Being dismissive of speculation might be a good tactical decision but it doesn't strike me as a good strategic one. And so. For me at least. I'm gonna keep on guessing what comes next. /end
I'll append this thread with a clip from a roundtable held by @Scobleizer and @IrenaCronin . These are SMART people. Talking about whether speculating about Apple is worth it: