1) The House of Representatives today will debate and vote on its version of the police reform bill. We expect debate on the measure in the mid-afternoon with a vote sometime this evening..likely after 8 pm et.

The measure is expected to pass. Expect a vote along party lines.

2) House Democrats don’t face the same procedural issues as Republicans do in the Senate. In the Senate, the minority is afforded a few levers of power, hence why Democrats were able to stall the Senate from even beginning debate on the GOP police bill yesterday.

3) But in the House, the majority rules and the minority can do little about it.

Democrats believe passing the House bill will apply pressure on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to advance the House plan. That may be a pipe dream.

4) But Democrats may prefer to have police reform as an “election issue.” They’ve already portrayed the GOP-run Senate as a “legislative graveyard” – even if Senate Democrats were the ones burying the Republican police bill.

5) Democrats believe they have a good chance at winning control of the Senate this fall. So, if the political winds blow their way, Democrats think they can write and craft their own unified bill and advance it through a Democratic House and Senate themselves next year.

6) But if Democrats do control the Senate in 2021 and attempt to move a police reform bill, here’s one thing that’s a near-certainty: it’s unlikely Democrats will have 60 votes.

As we often say on Capitol Hill: It’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math.

7) And, this is why a legislative solution to police reform is likely stalled in Congress for the near foreseeable future.