. @SpaceX is notoriously vertically integrated. But as their Mars plans come closer to fruition this is going to change drastically.

What SpaceX will provide is a basic, hollow shell supporting a Mars settlement: transportation (Starship), communications/nav (Starlink equiv.), power (borrowed from Tesla), and perhaps ground mobility (also Tesla) and tunneling (Boring co.).

That leaves dozens of entire industries they likely won’t touch unless they absolutely have to: sanitation, food, ISRU, finances, governance, health care, etc.

I don’t think a lot of people, even in the space industry, have truly internalized what Starship means for deep space exploration and how soon it’s going to happen. Why should the default position be skepticism when all they’ve done in the past is prove critics wrong?

What if instead we change our priors and assume it will happen and roughly on schedule? There are tremendous business opportunities if you can stomach the risk. Entire new companies and pivots from existing ones will be supported by the Mars effort.

This begins in 2024/26: who’s going to provide the cargo for the first pre-landed Starships? They’ll be loaded with food, medical supplies, equipment, etc. that SpaceX isn’t going to produce themselves.

As soon as humans get involved, the number of opportunities jumps again: who’s going to provide insurance for travelers, who’s going to provide clothing and hygiene and entertainment? Companies would be wise to start working on these things NOW if they want first mover advantage.