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Saw this "Biden in a Landslide" map on CNN this morning, and I decided to put together a THREAD showing how good pundits, experts, scientists, and the media in general actually are at election predictions...
The Upshot - Clinton chances of winning 85% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Reuters - Clinton has 90% chance https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1
“Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency rose from 78% last week to 91% Monday before Election Day, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market.” https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/political-prediction-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html
MSNBC – Scientist predicts 99% chance Clinton will win (It’s Science Ya'll!) https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/scientist-predicts-99-chance-of-clinton-win-801634371744
Cillizza - Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/
Stanford University: Clinton has a 99% probability of winning the election
https://predict2016.sites.stanford.edu/clinton-has-99-probability-winning-election
https://predict2016.sites.stanford.edu/clinton-has-99-probability-winning-election
Vox: Here’s why the 15% chance that Nate Silver is giving Trump to win is ACKSHUALLY way too high https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Clinton will win 322 to 216
Huffpost – Clinton 323 - 215 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_n_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94
Princeton Election Consortium:
Joy Reid:
Moody's Analytics:
538 going nuts with the blue crayon: "Here's what a Clinton landslide would look like"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/
Meanwhile, I was writing the whole time that they were using the polls wrong. I predicted the in Lifezette and on the local news in Macon, GA that Trump would flip rust belt states because of his trade policy...
These are all the same "experts" now making all the same predictions because their predictions aren't about being right; their predictions are about gaslighting you out of voting.
Fin.
Fin.
