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Since "pivoting east" is still popping up in Lebanese media, quick thread. It's true that China doesn't impose political conditionality. They don't care if you're a democracy, a dictatorship or (hypothetically) a kleptocracy run by ex-warlords. They do care about getting repaid.
If you look at this map of China's $2tn in major global investments and construction deals since 2005, Lebanon stands out: it's the only country in the Middle East, and one of the few in the entire world, to have received nothing. https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/
Some people say "well, that's because of American pressure on Lebanon." That's nonsense. Jordan, not exactly known for getting crosswise with the Americans, has received $6bn. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, $41bn and $35bn respectively. America isn't keeping China out of Lebanon.
Again, China wants a return on investment. In 2018 most of its regional deals were with the six GCC countries (wealthy, lots of oil and gas) and with Egypt (big domestic market, strategic location, successfully went through an IMF program).
What does Lebanon offer? It lacks proven energy resources. It has access to the Mediterranean, sure, but China already has port investments in Egypt, Greece and Israel (to name a few). It has a weak industrial base. It just defaulted.
Even if you hope China will come and build infrastructure, that requires a modicum of good governance. Want a Chinese-funded power plant on some kind of BOT scheme? You need to be able to collect your electric bills, or China winds up owning chunks of your country.
There's nothing wrong with seeking Chinese investment (if done wisely, as with any investment). But it is not a substitute for an IMF deal and meaningful reforms. If it was, China would already be here. It's not. That's the tell. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/04/20/chinese-money-is-behind-some-of-the-arab-worlds-biggest-projects
