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Joe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency
MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html
MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html
Democrats also hold an edge in several contested race for U.S. Senate
AZ: Kelly+9
MI: Peters+10
NC: Cunningham+3
Cooper (D)+11 in NCGOV https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/politics/trump-senate-republicans-poll.html
AZ: Kelly+9
MI: Peters+10
NC: Cunningham+3
Cooper (D)+11 in NCGOV https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/politics/trump-senate-republicans-poll.html
In many ways, the poll is unchanged since October. The Democratic party ID advantage remains at D+1. Voters say they backed Trump by 2.5 in '16. Biden's favorability rating is unchanged.
Yet the president's lead among white voters has all but vanished, at least for now.
Yet the president's lead among white voters has all but vanished, at least for now.
The shift among white voters is concentrated among young and col+ white voters, but it extends to older and white voters without a degree, as well.
Maybe more surprising: virtually zero change among nonwhite voters, despite attention on racial issues
Maybe more surprising: virtually zero change among nonwhite voters, despite attention on racial issues
The voters who don't back Trump/Biden do lean GOP by registration/party ID. They voted for Trump in '16 by a 34-20 margin, as well.
But they're undecided for a reason: Trump's approval rating among this group is 29-56, and he's got a long way to go toward winning them
But they're undecided for a reason: Trump's approval rating among this group is 29-56, and he's got a long way to go toward winning them
And at the moment, there are limits to what Trump can hope to extract out of the electorate right now.
55% of registered voters said there was "almost no chance" they would support him.
55% of registered voters said there was "almost no chance" they would support him.
In terms of the individual states, I wouldn't spend *too* much time dwelling on each. At N=650 each, you get real noise. Maybe NC's too Biden; maybe AZ's too Trump. Totally possible, and that kind of noise is expected here.
But taken together, the story is clear.
But taken together, the story is clear.
