I agree there are now tailwinds behind a UK-EU Brexit trade deal, but *not* because EU is supposedly suddenly willing to compromise on state aid, but rather because @10DowningStreet now believes a deal is in its political interest 1/

Put simply: no deal will give @Keir_Starmer pol space, opportunity & ammunition to attack Govt's credibility; a deal would put Brexit to bed. So the thinking in Govt about how no deal would play in Commons has evolved. That's biggest driver for change in sentiment on UK side 2/

On managed divergence, EU is sceptical; on state aid, picture is complex. Yes, Covid-19 has made EU more liberal in their use of state aid, but the 27 are also becoming much tougher with 3rd countries (did people see presser w/China on Monday?) Implications for UK: still unclear

Covid-19 has shot Govt's short-term credibility. No deal would compound that. That's how Coronavirus & Brexit/trade talks are now interacting. Thinking was diff just a few weeks ago. From my perspective, it's all politics ENDS