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If a university in England with 10,000 students resumed in person teaching today, we can expect that 6 students would be Covid-19 infected, 4 of whom would be unaware of this fact. 1/8
Esp if not wearing good face masks, these 4 would place many others at risk by attending classes in enclosed rooms, esp if lacking good ventilation. Even with 2m distancing, they'd place others at risk via aerosol transmission throughout room. See
. 2/8 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1266700889739399177
. 2/8 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1266700889739399177
Many of these classrooms will include someone whom the UK government rates as "at greatest risk of severe illness and mortality from Covid-19", because over 50 or with underlying co-morbidities. 3/8 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1273883456884350977
. 3/8 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1273883456884350977
Sources for my figures in 1/
. The ONS estimates that 33,000 in England are currently infected. Population of England = 56 mn. So one out of 1,700 currently infected. 10,000 students divided by 1,700 = 6 …. 4/8
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020
. The ONS estimates that 33,000 in England are currently infected. Population of England = 56 mn. So one out of 1,700 currently infected. 10,000 students divided by 1,700 = 6 …. 4/8https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020
…and, as @Keir_Starmer noted in PMQs, testing & contract tracing is now failing to reach 2/3rds of those infected. Hence 4 of 6 infected students would be unaware that they're infected. 5/8 https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1275747806431543296
. Hence 4 of 6 infected students would be unaware that they're infected. 5/8 https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1275747806431543296
Note that rate of infection among young adults 20-49 is higher than among others in England (though we lack breakdown of ages 18-to-late-20s of undergrads & postgrads). Hence, perhaps more than 6 in 10,000 students will be infected. 6/8
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fhealthandsocialcare%2fconditionsanddiseases%2fdatasets%2fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata%2f2020/covid19infectionsurveydatasets20200618full1.xlsx
(though we lack breakdown of ages 18-to-late-20s of undergrads & postgrads). Hence, perhaps more than 6 in 10,000 students will be infected. 6/8https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fhealthandsocialcare%2fconditionsanddiseases%2fdatasets%2fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata%2f2020/covid19infectionsurveydatasets20200618full1.xlsx
See this excellent thread on different rates of infection by age, which discusses the fall in the median age of those who test positive for coronavirus in the US. 7/8 https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1275431821422006274
, which discusses the fall in the median age of those who test positive for coronavirus in the US. 7/8 https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1275431821422006274
And see also these tweets on a recent piece by @erinbromage on the significance of age-based considerations to the re-opening of university campuses in the autumn. 8/8 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1275292379562606592
PS: Latest @ONS estimateis 51,000 infected in England, or 1 in 1,100. So 9 is now the expected number of students infected in a population of 10,000, 6 of whom would not be aware of their infection.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata
is 51,000 infected in England, or 1 in 1,100. So 9 is now the expected number of students infected in a population of 10,000, 6 of whom would not be aware of their infection.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata
