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Update: Up to the 23 June 2020, estimate 69,005 excess deaths (above average) related to the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK.
This series is based on occurrences of deaths that are adjusted to account for any that go to coroners so not yet registered.
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This series is based on occurrences of deaths that are adjusted to account for any that go to coroners so not yet registered.
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The adjustment uses historic relationships between the number of deaths that occur and are registered in a specific time period. For example the latest ONS data suggests 74% of deaths that occur are registered in 7 days and 85% within 14.
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However, we know around 18-20% of deaths that occur go to coroners and of these around 1 in 3 go to an inquest. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, inquests have been postponed so it is likely any estimates of excess deaths based on registrations will be an undercount.
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It is inevitable there is a backlog of deaths where inquests would have taken place since March and death then registered within the ONS figures so deaths would be higher. I try and account for this in my estimate but it is difficult to ascertain the size of this.
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In 2018, 30,897 deaths went to an inquest, an average of 595 per week. Even if there was a delay since March in concluding 300 per week, this would equate to over 3,000 deaths not being registered that in normal times would have been.
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This factor may explain any difference between my estimate of excess deaths and any based on registrations. Note the inquests should be resuming shortly so this would add to registrations going forward.
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It is likely that most Covid-19 deaths would not require an inquest so it is non-Covid deaths that would be lower within the registration system.
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Ends
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Ends
