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Sorry to be a bit imodest for a minute...
...but if you were following me last week you would have known this already...
Don’t read the excitable headline - read the article.
...but if you were following me last week you would have known this already...
Don’t read the excitable headline - read the article.
2/
So this is what is being lined up:
1. UK claims “victory over Europe” by maintaining chunks of Single market + free trade deal. With “cast iron guarantee” that UK can diverge from this.
2. Newspapers hail Boris & Brexit
3. UK doesn’t diverge too much as price too high
So this is what is being lined up:
1. UK claims “victory over Europe” by maintaining chunks of Single market + free trade deal. With “cast iron guarantee” that UK can diverge from this.
2. Newspapers hail Boris & Brexit
3. UK doesn’t diverge too much as price too high
3/
4. It’s basically a disguised “May’s deal” with nationalistic bells & whistles built in
5. A Corona weary UK accepts this
6. Remainers are then ridiculed for saying Brexit would be terrible as £ surges and economy doesn’t collapse
7. The whole think will have cost billions
4. It’s basically a disguised “May’s deal” with nationalistic bells & whistles built in
5. A Corona weary UK accepts this
6. Remainers are then ridiculed for saying Brexit would be terrible as £ surges and economy doesn’t collapse
7. The whole think will have cost billions
4/
8. UK will essentially follow much of EU - with no say - but “winning” right to independence would then precipitate mini no deals like situations - so would be avoided.
9. Brexit will have cost hundreds of billions by 2030 but much of this merely absorbed in higher govt debt
8. UK will essentially follow much of EU - with no say - but “winning” right to independence would then precipitate mini no deals like situations - so would be avoided.
9. Brexit will have cost hundreds of billions by 2030 but much of this merely absorbed in higher govt debt
5/
This is the best - politically available - scenario right now...
...& is still not certain.
But as I said last week, is being seriously looked at in Brussels AND London.
It’s a “non-extension extension” or “Switzerland minus”.
..& then the real Brexit debate starts...
This is the best - politically available - scenario right now...
...& is still not certain.
But as I said last week, is being seriously looked at in Brussels AND London.
It’s a “non-extension extension” or “Switzerland minus”.
..& then the real Brexit debate starts...
6/
In other words a potential Brexit deal needs
1. UK needs to show it won independence
2. EU market or rules not to be diluted
These 2 things look mutually exclusive but if you concentrate on the “show” part of the independence there’s a way to square the circle.
In other words a potential Brexit deal needs
1. UK needs to show it won independence
2. EU market or rules not to be diluted
These 2 things look mutually exclusive but if you concentrate on the “show” part of the independence there’s a way to square the circle.
