Read on Twitter
Whenever you see anyone saying "Today, the market did XX" what you are getting is their personal view.
The sell off is because Biden is doing well? The incumbent has been in free fall for weeks as the market rallied 40%, but today is due to the challenger?
Bias much?
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The sell off is because Biden is doing well? The incumbent has been in free fall for weeks as the market rallied 40%, but today is due to the challenger?
Bias much?
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Day to day action has too much noise to make hard & fast declarations.
I try hard not to read too much into a one day selloff, and I prefer weekly to daily charts. And while I respect @jimcramer, I disagree with his take here:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html
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I try hard not to read too much into a one day selloff, and I prefer weekly to daily charts. And while I respect @jimcramer, I disagree with his take here:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html
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This is an area I have been thinking about and researching for a long time -- since at least 2004:
https://ritholtz.com/2004/07/confusing-cause-effect/
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https://ritholtz.com/2004/07/confusing-cause-effect/
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In 2008, I made the observation "When the ruling party is in election trouble, its because the future discounting mechanism of markets is incorporating a slowing economy into its pricing"
Worst economy since Depression ALREADY hurt the incumbent.
https://ritholtz.com/2008/01/confusing-cause-effect-elections-and-markets/
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Worst economy since Depression ALREADY hurt the incumbent.
https://ritholtz.com/2008/01/confusing-cause-effect-elections-and-markets/
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My very first article published in Washington Post was the simple admonition that politics and investing don’t mix. In an election year, we need extra reminding that this is true.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-politics-and-investing-dont-mix/2011/02/06/ABnAlvQ_story.html
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-politics-and-investing-dont-mix/2011/02/06/ABnAlvQ_story.html
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Same thing in 2016: No, the market is not a political indicator...
https://ritholtz.com/2016/01/the-presidential-race-offers-no-insight-into-markets/
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https://ritholtz.com/2016/01/the-presidential-race-offers-no-insight-into-markets/
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Unfortunately, causative errors are an all-too-common analytical blunder when reviewing market data. Given the blaring headlines and search for certainty in an uncertain world, confusing cause and consequence is a regular occurrence. This is a perfect example of that foible.
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Its a very common error, and we are all guilty of it. Especially if you really LIKE or DISLIKE one of the candidates or their major policies
If you like to think about this sort of thing, there are lots of interesting discussions on the topic here
https://ritholtz.com/politics-investing/
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If you like to think about this sort of thing, there are lots of interesting discussions on the topic here
https://ritholtz.com/politics-investing/
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Forgot this one!
The URL is a little NSFW but its otherwise ok https://ritholtz.com/2016/10/debunking-bullshit/
The URL is a little NSFW but its otherwise ok https://ritholtz.com/2016/10/debunking-bullshit/
