Today at @ecfr we released exciting polling on how Europeans see the EU and world post covid-19
@DatapraxisEU.

Over 11,000 European citizens
9 EU countries
Over 2/3 of population + GDP

Here are some of our takeaways. A thread.

In our report today, Ivan Krastev & I show that assumptions about support for the big state, faith in experts; pro- & anti-Europeanism were misplaced. Covid-19 has scrambled distinctions between nationalism & globalism https://buff.ly/2CCoah9 

While the #EU did not rise to the challenge in most people’s view, large majorities of voters say that they are now more firmly convinced of the need for further European cooperation than they were before the #covid19 crisis.

In fact, when we dug deeper into the data we found 3 mental models that European citizens use to understand the world after the #coronavirus crisis: the “DIYers”, “New Cold warriors” & “Strategic Sovereigntists”

“DIYers”, think that after the crisis, geopolitics will be like that of the nineteenth century, when every nation was on its own

“New Cold Warriors” believe the future is a bipolar, with the US as the leader of the free world and China the leader of an autocratic axis

"Strategic sovereigntists" are the largest group across Europe & represent a new form of pro-Europeans who believe Europe will need to support its own sovereignty through joint foreign policy, control of external borders, and re-localised production.

Every country has representatives of all 3 groups. But the way the groups are distributed challenges both countries’ self-perceptions & their stereotypes about others – look at Germany which has most "DIYers", or France and Italy who have more New Cold Warriors than Poland

What we find is a new opportunity for European cooperation coming from feelings of insecurity and disappointment with Trumps’ America and Xi Jinping’s China.

All this means that the pandemic has transformed the way Europeans look at the #EU's role in their lives. Leaders have a big task on their hands; they must make the case carefully to avoid provoking a backlash of re-intensified Euroscepticism.