Thread by @TetotRemi, Weekly Update June 24th@RaoulGMI #COVID19 Globally, Covid-19 daily cases are averaging more [...]

Remi Tetot

TetotRemi

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Weekly Update June 24th
@RaoulGMI #COVID19

Globally, Covid-19 daily cases are averaging more than 150,000 per day...

... whilst global deaths are averaging almost 5,000 per day...

We are already halfway to the 10 million cases milestone and will likely hit that point within the next three to four days...

So far 4.5 million people have recovered from Covid-19...

... which leaves us with 4.1 million active cases...

Global cases are following Potential Path number 1, which is based on June’s daily growth average...

Ditto for global deaths...

In Asia, China is reporting fewer cases each day...

... whilst Hong Kong is seeing a sudden spike due to imported cases, which they do not really care about overtly as these cases are quarantined at the airport...

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3090081/coronavirus-about-30-imported-cases-covid-19

thx @Darky999

South Korea is very slowly ticking upwards...

The Philippines have just reported their highest number of daily cases since the beginning of the pandemic...

While Indonesia is following its course...

India is still trending...

In Europe, we can see the number of daily cases ticking up again...

Germany is now averaging 600 daily new cases, which has proven enough to trigger a regional lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53149762

Meanwhile, the UK average is still over 1,000 a day...

In the US, the situation is about to get out of control...

Growth out of New York and New Jersey is at an all-time high and trending...

Back in March, the US Government had only one fire to fight in New York; this time it looks like they will have four...

It is very difficult to find consistent reliable data for the rate of hospitalisation. The following site is making a good effort in its attempt to keep everything updated in the same place: https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking Project

As the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds across the United States, one of the greatest barriers we are encountering is the absence of credible and consistent data. Currently, the only reliable daily data...

https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

As a reference, we can see that back in April at peak New Jersey (right-hand side of below graphic), Covid-19 was occupying all ICU beds...

California, Texas, and Arizona are already showing that hospitalisation is increasing, now bear in mind that you need to aggregate this growth to include other conditions to really understand the imminent risk of shortages...

ICU bed usage is also growing rapidly in California and Arizona; it is perfectly possible that we will see the same level of usage as in New Jersey...

And, because we know that Covid-19 is following its confirmed cases trajectory, we know this is only the beginning...

It is also following the trajectory of total deaths...

The lag between confirmed case and death is around eight days; by July 4th the US could average more than 1,000 per day...

It is true that the US is doing more tests now than it was back in April...

... but the rate of change of testing is decelerating...

... which suggests current Covid-19 cases in the US are the result of a combination of several factors: increased testing, the early reopening, and the protests...