THREAD: #BlackLivesMatter protests have not led to clear spikes in #COVID19 transmission. What does that mean?
1/ Here are trends in new cases (7 day rolling average) for some counties with large protests
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
2/ Mask wearing and the outside setting may have helped, but experts warned not to leap to the conclusion that all outside gatherings are safe https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
The Black Lives Matter Protests Have Taught Us More About The Coronavirus

Even though hundreds of thousands of protesters and police crowded onto the streets, overall social distancing actually strengthened in big cities with major protests.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
3/ Other possible factors include relative youth of the protesters, and the fact that, even given the large size of many protests, most people in those cities were not crowded together https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
The Black Lives Matter Protests Have Taught Us More About The Coronavirus

Even though hundreds of thousands of protesters and police crowded onto the streets, overall social distancing actually strengthened in big cities with major protests.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
4/ Indeed a new study of cellphone tracking data suggests that, overall, people in those cities stayed at home *more* after the protests began.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
The Black Lives Matter Protests Have Taught Us More About The Coronavirus

Even though hundreds of thousands of protesters and police crowded onto the streets, overall social distancing actually strengthened in big cities with major protests.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf
5/ What is clear is that new cases are surging across the South and West, driving an overall increase for the US as a whole. That seems to have be driven by relaxations of social distancing that began before the protests.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
6/ Quote from @DrHowardKoh, former assistant secretary for health, now at Harvard: “The fact that overall cases in the United States are going the wrong way is deeply concerning when we’re 5 months into the first wave.” https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
The Black Lives Matter Protests Have Taught Us More About The Coronavirus

Even though hundreds of thousands of protesters and police crowded onto the streets, overall social distancing actually strengthened in big cities with major protests.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges
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