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Hello! Here's my daily thread on coronavirus stats globally.
Today:
Focus on the crisis in the US (again
).
- Hospital admissions are climbing - here's a state by state breakdown.
- Texas Gov asks everyone to stay home.
- More detail on the American death rate.
Today:
Focus on the crisis in the US (again
).- Hospital admissions are climbing - here's a state by state breakdown.
- Texas Gov asks everyone to stay home.
- More detail on the American death rate.
Big picture: Yesterday was the second-highest day of new cases ever, globally.
A high day for deaths globally yesterday too but not a new high, so the increase in this wave has moderated a little.
A high day for deaths globally yesterday too but not a new high, so the increase in this wave has moderated a little.
The US: Yesterday was the second-highest day ever since the crisis began, for new cases.
The increase in daily cases has gone from "going up gradually" to "going up steeply". This is very bad. America is basically back at the beginning of the crisis.
The increase in daily cases has gone from "going up gradually" to "going up steeply". This is very bad. America is basically back at the beginning of the crisis.
Has the US reached a turning point in deaths? The 7-day average ticked up yesterday from 619 to 620, breaking a long, solid decline.
Could be a blip. Time will tell.
Could be a blip. Time will tell.
US: Dr Robert Redfield, director of the CDC: “We have all done the best that we can do to tackle this virus and the reality is that it’s brought this nation to its knees.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/anthony-fauci-covid-19-statement-house-hearing
California: Biggest day ever for new cases.
Deaths are steady at around 60 per day.
Deaths are steady at around 60 per day.
Texas: Biggest day ever for new cases.
Deaths are holding steady at about 27 per day.
Deaths are holding steady at about 27 per day.
Texas hospitals are coming under stress [chart from Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon]
![Texas hospitals are coming under stress [chart from Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbRN7ZjXkAEqiKY.jpg "Texas hospitals are coming under stress [chart from Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon]")
Texas has the steepest-climbing hospital admissions curve but they're actually worse in South Carolina and Alabama. [via Pantheon]
![Texas has the steepest-climbing hospital admissions curve but they're actually worse in South Carolina and Alabama. [via Pantheon]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbROBJ8WoAALNo7.jpg "Texas has the steepest-climbing hospital admissions curve but they're actually worse in South Carolina and Alabama. [via Pantheon]")
Texas governor Greg Abbott urges everyone to stay at home. https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-record-coronavirus-cases-governor-tells-people-to-stay-home-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
Florida: Same thing. Cases up, deaths in plateau.
Arizona: Cases up, and the death rate is gradually rising.
Here's the cases v deaths conundrum in a chart from Pantheon:
Obvious question: Why do deaths stay flat even though the case rate is going up?
Obvious question: Why do deaths stay flat even though the case rate is going up?
- Deaths are 2/4 weeks behind the curve of cases.- Deaths aren't *declining*. They're staying elevated, piling on more deaths consistently, day after day.
- There's nothing good about a flat death rate. In countries that have tackled COVID well, the death rate is near-zero.
One thing we have learned from Iran and Turkey is that second-wave increases in new cases are followed by second waves of deaths.On this issue, the US is a lucky outlier - so far.
We'll know if that luck holds by the end of July.
Brazil: Still in the plateau.
Bolsonaro ordered to law and wear a mask. "At one rally, he was filmed coughing without covering his mouth and on another occasion he was seen sneezing into his hand and shaking the hand of an elderly woman immediately afterwards." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53154890
Russia: Still on the plateau.
India: New cases climbing steeply, deaths will follow.
UK: Still struggling to get new cases below 1000 a day. With the lockdown relaxed, this statistic becomes much more important.
UK: 280 deaths yesterday - that's a high day. So high that the 7-day average of deaths is now going *up*.
Too soon to say whether this is a data blip or a trend.
But it is worrying.
Too soon to say whether this is a data blip or a trend.
But it is worrying.
Peru: twice before we have seen Peru get "past the peak" only for a new peak to emerge. Third time lucky?
Chile: Hopeful signs continue as both cases and deaths level off or decline.
Iran: Second wave of cases appears to be moderating.
But the second wave of deaths hit a new peak yesterday.
But the second wave of deaths hit a new peak yesterday.
Germany: Struggling to get new cases to zero.
Mexico: The low days are getting higher and that is keeping the death rate very high in Mexico.
Turkey: Struggling, successfully, to head off a second wave of cases.
Second wave of deaths is still rising, however.
Second wave of deaths is still rising, however.
Pakistan (by request from a reader!): New cases have just gotten past the peak and are heading down to around 5K per day.
Deaths also appear to have crested.
That's a good news - but a long way to go yet.
Deaths also appear to have crested.
That's a good news - but a long way to go yet.
We watched a lot more TV in the lockdown.
[Chart via Capital Economics]
![We watched a lot more TV in the lockdown. [Chart via Capital Economics]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbRP9bdWAAIW0c4.jpg "We watched a lot more TV in the lockdown. [Chart via Capital Economics]")
[Chart via Capital Economics]
Others:
Spain: good
Italy: good
France: good
Germany: good
China: good
S Korea: good
Vietnam: good.
Japan: good.
NZ: Good.
Australia: Good.
Look up your own country at Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Spain: good
Italy: good
France: good
Germany: good
China: good
S Korea: good
Vietnam: good.
Japan: good.
NZ: Good.
Australia: Good.
Look up your own country at Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
