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Next up in my #2020PlayerBreakdowns Series for #fantasybaseball is:
Frankie Montas, SP
Oakland #Athletics
27 years old
Drafted: N/A Int’l FA
Let’s get started...
2019 Stat Line:
16 G
96 IP
9-2
2.63 ERA
1.11 WHIP
3.00 FIP
3.47 xFIP
3.76 SIERA
26.1 K%
5.8 BB%
20.3 K-BB%
.229 AVG
.297 BABIP
0.75 HR/9
16 G
96 IP
9-2
2.63 ERA
1.11 WHIP
3.00 FIP
3.47 xFIP
3.76 SIERA
26.1 K%
5.8 BB%
20.3 K-BB%
.229 AVG
.297 BABIP
0.75 HR/9
Montas broke out in a huge way in 2019, posting a 2.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 26.1 K% w/ all the peripheral data to back it up.
Unfortunately, we only saw a 96 inning sample size due to a 80-game drug suspension for using Ostarine (PED).
Unfortunately, we only saw a 96 inning sample size due to a 80-game drug suspension for using Ostarine (PED).
So let’s start with the elephant in the room...
Was the breakout legitimate or enchanted due to pharmaceuticals?
Montas was always able to throw 100 mph, & nothing he did over a short sample size really suggests that the drugs themselves were responsible for his results.
Was the breakout legitimate or enchanted due to pharmaceuticals?
Montas was always able to throw 100 mph, & nothing he did over a short sample size really suggests that the drugs themselves were responsible for his results.
That being said, we can’t know for certain.
So why don’t we dig through the data, game logs, & scouting reports to see what we should believe about Montas going into the 2020 season.
So why don’t we dig through the data, game logs, & scouting reports to see what we should believe about Montas going into the 2020 season.
2019 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 11.5%
O-Swing: 35.1%
Z-Swing: 68.4%
O-Contact: 64.8%
Z-Contact: 84.9%
F-Strike: 60.7%
Zone: 42.2%
Montas saw a significant increase in his O-Swing% & SwStr% from 2018.
The rest of his metrics are fairly league avg.
SwStr: 11.5%
O-Swing: 35.1%
Z-Swing: 68.4%
O-Contact: 64.8%
Z-Contact: 84.9%
F-Strike: 60.7%
Zone: 42.2%
Montas saw a significant increase in his O-Swing% & SwStr% from 2018.
The rest of his metrics are fairly league avg.
The most important thing for Montas is the three year improvement in BB%
2017: 13.2%
2018: 7.4%
2019: 5.8%
Keeping opposing hitters off the basepaths in addition to an uptick in chase rate (due to a devastating new pitch) is almost enough data by itself to explain the breakout.
2017: 13.2%
2018: 7.4%
2019: 5.8%
Keeping opposing hitters off the basepaths in addition to an uptick in chase rate (due to a devastating new pitch) is almost enough data by itself to explain the breakout.
But we will talk more about that w/ his pitch arsenal.
But first, Batted Ball Profile:
22.1 LD%
49.4 GB%
28.5 FB%
45.1 Pull%
30.7 Cent%
24.2 Opp%
37.9 Hard%
47.3 Med%
14.8 Soft%
Exit Velocity 86.8 mph
Barrels 3.8%
Statcast Hard Hit 34.5%
But first, Batted Ball Profile:
22.1 LD%
49.4 GB%
28.5 FB%
45.1 Pull%
30.7 Cent%
24.2 Opp%
37.9 Hard%
47.3 Med%
14.8 Soft%
Exit Velocity 86.8 mph
Barrels 3.8%
Statcast Hard Hit 34.5%
Montas made great strides in the quality of contact he was giving up last season.
He was able to increase his GB% while pulling away from both his opponents LD% & FB%.
K’s + GB = Success
Add in a Barrel rate that was top-4% of the league & there is plenty to like.
He was able to increase his GB% while pulling away from both his opponents LD% & FB%.
K’s + GB = Success
Add in a Barrel rate that was top-4% of the league & there is plenty to like.
So how did he accomplish this? Let’s take a look at this pitch arsenal:
Sinker (38%)
Slider (25%)
4SFB (18.7%)
Split-Finger (18.2%)
The addition of a split-finger FB is what we are excited about. But let’s take a look at each offering one at a time...
Sinker (38%)
Slider (25%)
4SFB (18.7%)
Split-Finger (18.2%)
The addition of a split-finger FB is what we are excited about. But let’s take a look at each offering one at a time...
Sinker (96.4 mph)
.315/.366/.469
ISO - .154
BABIP - .339
K% - 11.3
BB% - 5.6
GB% - 47.8
xwOBAcon: .381
Barrel% - 3.5
Zone% - 52.7
SwStr% - 5.8
.315/.366/.469
ISO - .154
BABIP - .339
K% - 11.3
BB% - 5.6
GB% - 47.8
xwOBAcon: .381
Barrel% - 3.5
Zone% - 52.7
SwStr% - 5.8
Montas’ sinker doesn’t miss many bats, w/ a 87.9 contact% & 5.9% SwStr%.
But it does generate a 47.8 GB% & generate weak contact (3.7% barrel rate)
A .339 BABIP suggests hitters were a bit lucky on this pitch as well, so maybe we can expect even better results in 2020.
But it does generate a 47.8 GB% & generate weak contact (3.7% barrel rate)
A .339 BABIP suggests hitters were a bit lucky on this pitch as well, so maybe we can expect even better results in 2020.
It’s also going to limit his K potential if he continues to use the sinker as his primary fastball.
It induces a ton of contact, even if it is weak contact.
Still, I am not sure anyone is going to complain about a few easy GB to help keep the ratios down.
It induces a ton of contact, even if it is weak contact.
Still, I am not sure anyone is going to complain about a few easy GB to help keep the ratios down.
Slider (88.4 mph)
.167/.198/.265
ISO - .098
BABIP - .254
K% - 38.7
BB% - 3.8
GB% - 59.0
xwOBAcon: .286
Barrel% - 1.6
Zone% - 45.8
SwStr% - 15.1
.167/.198/.265
ISO - .098
BABIP - .254
K% - 38.7
BB% - 3.8
GB% - 59.0
xwOBAcon: .286
Barrel% - 1.6
Zone% - 45.8
SwStr% - 15.1
Montas slider drew a 10.3 pVAL, accompanied by a 33.3% O-Swing, 45.8 zone%, & 15.1% SwStr rate.
He pounded the lower corner of the strike zone, limiting opposing hitters to a mere .286 xwOBAcon (MLB avg .369) & 1.6 Barrel%
BUT a .254 BABIP suggests slight regression may come
He pounded the lower corner of the strike zone, limiting opposing hitters to a mere .286 xwOBAcon (MLB avg .369) & 1.6 Barrel%
BUT a .254 BABIP suggests slight regression may come
4SFB (96.8 mph)
.250/.328/.442
ISO - .192
BABIP - .316
K% - 22.4
BB% - 10.3
GB% - 25.6
xwOBAcon: .443
Barrel% - 5.1
Zone% - 57.6
SwStr% - 9.0
.250/.328/.442
ISO - .192
BABIP - .316
K% - 22.4
BB% - 10.3
GB% - 25.6
xwOBAcon: .443
Barrel% - 5.1
Zone% - 57.6
SwStr% - 9.0
Montas 4-seam FB misses more bats than his sinker (as it should) w/ an 8.9% SwStr rate.
If you’re going to hurt him by squaring up a pitch, it’s this one.
But active spin increased significantly from 2018 to 19, so it has potential to be a nice source of whiffs up in the zone.
If you’re going to hurt him by squaring up a pitch, it’s this one.
But active spin increased significantly from 2018 to 19, so it has potential to be a nice source of whiffs up in the zone.
Split-Finger (86.8 mph)
.160/.207/.272
ISO - .111
BABIP - .234
K% - 37.9
BB% - 4.6
GB% - 63.3
xwOBAcon: .295
Barrel% - 6.1
Zone% - 37.3
SwStr% - 21.4
.160/.207/.272
ISO - .111
BABIP - .234
K% - 37.9
BB% - 4.6
GB% - 63.3
xwOBAcon: .295
Barrel% - 6.1
Zone% - 37.3
SwStr% - 21.4
This pitch is AMAZING.
The splitter along w/ his slider gives Montas two secondary pitches w/ high swing-and-miss potential.
A 45.7% O-Swing, 30.9% zone rate, & 21.3 SwStr% make this pitch devastating to opposing hitters.
The splitter along w/ his slider gives Montas two secondary pitches w/ high swing-and-miss potential.
A 45.7% O-Swing, 30.9% zone rate, & 21.3 SwStr% make this pitch devastating to opposing hitters.
Unfortunately he throws it only 18.2% of the time (peak 23.8) due to it literally being a hard pitch to throw (painful even).
But that is ok if his slider can continue to be a workhorse pitch along w/ his two seamer.
This pitch mix works & he does not need to change a thing.
But that is ok if his slider can continue to be a workhorse pitch along w/ his two seamer.
This pitch mix works & he does not need to change a thing.
Montas pitch arsenal make him tough to predict as he has made an effort to learn “how” to pitch smart.
Crediting teammates Mike Fiers & Seam Mannaea, he credits his success to a new game plan & improved command.
You can’t argue w/ the results.
Crediting teammates Mike Fiers & Seam Mannaea, he credits his success to a new game plan & improved command.
You can’t argue w/ the results.
The main red flag fantasy players had in regards to Montas was an innings limit.
The 96 ip he tossed in 2019 were the most since tossing 128 in 2015.
But in a 60-game season that concern is out the window, paving the way for a full season of Ace production.
The 96 ip he tossed in 2019 were the most since tossing 128 in 2015.
But in a 60-game season that concern is out the window, paving the way for a full season of Ace production.
Montas was able to go at least 6ip in 12 of his 16 starts, making it to the 8th twice.
That is important heading into a short season as the young A’s staff will likely be utilization grade the bullpen to supplement Luzardo/Puk starts.
Montas is primed for a solid year.
That is important heading into a short season as the young A’s staff will likely be utilization grade the bullpen to supplement Luzardo/Puk starts.
Montas is primed for a solid year.
A drug suspension still hovers over Montas’ breakout, but his velocity has always been able to touch 100 mph, so it’s tough to be too concerned.
There is also little evidence that he will fail to repeat his performance again in 2020.
Currently being drafted as the SP27
There is also little evidence that he will fail to repeat his performance again in 2020.
Currently being drafted as the SP27
What to expect from Frankie Montas in 2020:
3.30 ERA
1.14 WHIP
27% K
It is hard to predict what will happen in 60-games, but Montas should be in line for QS/W at a high level when IP/G will be at a premium.
3.30 ERA
1.14 WHIP
27% K
It is hard to predict what will happen in 60-games, but Montas should be in line for QS/W at a high level when IP/G will be at a premium.
