As we wait for Kentucky’s Senate election results (which will be ready next Tuesday, June 30th), let’s ponder the lessons of a “Charles Booker wins” outcome:

If Booker shocks the world, it will be because: (thread)

1. He rose to meet a moment — a month ago, the vast majority of people did not know him. In the wake of #BreonnaTalyor and #DavidMcAtee and #GeorgeFloyd, Booker was the only candidate who showed up and spoke honestly about this moment and movement.

2. He speaks from the heart, isn’t a canned politician — McGrath, Grimes and Conway (previous KY Dem candidates) always felt focus-grouped & unreal. Booker is very much real. He hit the scene with twitter videos from his kitchen with his kids. Listen to him and you hear a human.

3. Lousiville voters, usually taken for granted, turned out in force — The national Democratic Party has this problem & the Kentucky Democratic Party definitely has this problem. As @phillipmbailey has pointed out: KY GOP has had 2 statewide Black officials; the KYDems have 0.

4. The KSR Effect — cannot be overestimated how many voters turned out for Booker because 1) @MattJonesRadio endorsed him, 2) McGrath’s overtly tone deaf attacks on Jones, in particular getting him booted off his tv show, were an unbelievable miscalculation.

5. The $40 Million Candidate — McGrath got flooded by national money but no one bothered to ask or listen to KY voters. The $20M they spent running never ending commercials about the military and fighter pilots actually LOST votes. It was a singularly tone deaf campaign message.

6. While most KY voters who don’t live on Twitter or follow KY politics had never heard of Booker, those who knew already knew — As he surged, the vast, vast, vast majority of KY Dem & Left activists mobilized behind him... because they knew. This meant a GOTV army.

7. McGrath launched her campaign saying Mitch was blocking Trump’s agenda and that’s not what Kentuckians voted for and she was gonna put a stop to it to enact Trump’s promises and “that’s gonna be my message.” This resonated with literally no one.

8. McGrath said she believed Christine Blasey Ford’s accusations AND that she would’ve confirmed Brett Kavanaugh *anyway*. This resonated with absolutely no one.

9. Because McGrath was unreal, focus grouped and unable to go a week without a cataclysmic miscalculation, Kentucky voters were desperate for another option.

10. While Booker surged b/c of the historic moment, it would be a mistake to understand it only as that. Booker speaks in a language that resonates. It’s not buzzwords and canned talking points. It’s a message of unity, inclusion and change.

11. Ironically, McGrath tried to position herself as a “Trump outsider” but only Booker caught the real populist vibe. Booker ran a statewide campaign. McGrath bludgeoned the electorate with TV ads. Booker talked to them, listened to them, walked with them & went to them.

12. If if if — If Booker wins, if the vote totals are near record levels, part of the reason will be Mail-In Ballots. Follow @joesonka. Mitch has spent decades fighting voter rights. Mitch+Trump are trying to block mail-in voting in November. Mitch’s whining could be a liability.

Finally: We won’t know the winner until next Tuesday. The candidate who spent $20,000,000+ and 40x their opponent should win. But if Booker wins, or comes close, it’s cause he’s the only candidate who listened to and spoke to actual voters.