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SiSi won’t send his army to Libya , but UAE demands otherwise
Egypt has outsourced much of it's foreign policy forcing it to show a card that it can’t afford to play .
By Ali Bakeer
@AliBakeer
Egypt has outsourced much of it's foreign policy forcing it to show a card that it can’t afford to play .
By Ali Bakeer
@AliBakeer
Egyptian Dictator General SiSi meets with Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan upon his arrival at Borg El Arab Airport in Alexandria , Egypt , 27 March 2019 , in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency .
On 20 June , Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el Sisi warned of an imminent military intervention in Libya against the forces of the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) . He ordered his army to be ready to carry out any mission outside the country if necessary .
Stressing that Sirte-Jufra is a red line for Cairo that won't allow anyone to cross , SiSi added that , “ Any direct intervention from the Egyptian state has now acquired international legitimacy .”
Many pundits rushed to draw up scenarios of an armed invasion & a possible direct Egyptian-Türkish military confrontation in Libya .
However , such scenarios are far-fetched given that for several reasons , SiSi is highly unlikely to send his army to fight a war in Libya in the 1st place .
Arab armies in general are designed to protect the regime , rather than to fight modern wars . The military establishment in Egypt is no exception .
Assuming that SiSi will send his army to Libya , he will need a valid reason to protect his position & justify his decision vis-a-vis the military establishment , in case the army gets bogged in the Libyan theatre later .
Although Egyptian officials have been promoting a false claim that Cairo is under a threat from GNA forces – which stand more than 1000 km away from the Egyptian borders –
the absence of an imminent threat to Egypt’s national security from Libya will deprive SiSi of the legitimate basis needed to send his troops .
He will not risk jeopardising his position & stretching his army thin in the heart of the Libyan desert more than a thousand kilometres away from his own borders while there is no serious threat to his regime .
Crucially , the generals of the military establishment will not sacrifice their luxurious life for an unjustified war in Libya .
Even if this point is ignored , Egypt still needs to secure Libyan & international support for the operation . The legitimate UN-recognised government (GNA) condemned such a step & considers it " A hostile act & direct interference that amounts to a declaration of war ."
An Egyptian intervention in spite of the GNA’s position will fuel the conflict further & possibly result in dividing Libya .
When it comes to the international position , where US stands is critical . Although President Trump can’t be trusted , the Pentagon stands firmly against a Russian presence in Libya & will likely block any Egyptian military move that would serve Moscow .
Egypt & it's army are highly dependent on the American financial aid which amounts to $84 billion since 1946 . In 2021 , Cairo is set to take an additional $1.4 billion in military aid from US .
This means that it will need a green light from US & without approval , it is guaranteed that SiSi’s army will not go into Libya .
Regionally , an Egyptian invasion will alarm Libya’s neighbors & it wouldn’t serve Cairo’s interest . Over the course of the conflict , Egypt tried to undermine the roles of Algeria & Morocco in Libya .
SiSi’s new initiative was announced without any consultation or coordination with these countries . Algeria in particular is currently working on a constitutional amendment that would allow it's army to be deployed outside the country .
Finally , for some time , Egyptians have been threatening to use military force against Ethiopia to protect what they consider their share from the Nile river .
However , as Addis Ababa proceeds in it's plans to fill the “ Nahda Dam ” next month , SiSi’s regime seems to have been strategically outsmarted by Ethiopia .
Any Egyptian intervention in Libya will practically undermine Cairo’s offensive deterrence against Ethiopia & might even lead to emboldening Addis Ababa .
Having said this , there is always a possibility of the Egyptian military conducting a “ Show Operation ” right on the borders with Libya , or strikes here & there , but that wouldn’t leave strategic implications on the ground & might backfire anyway on Cairo .
If this is the situation , why did SiSi come out with such a bold warning against ?
When it comes to the timing , SiSi’s statements can be seen as a distraction from the most serious threats to Egypt’s national security & the embarrassing setbacks on the Nile issue –
which is considered an existential threat to Egypt – & the security problems in Sinai , we well as growing economic challenges .
" UAE’s Trap For Egypt In Libya "
Egypt’s role & influence in the region has been massively downsized since it became incorporated as a follower in UAE-Saudi regional agenda .
Cairo now has almost zero say in all the critical issues in the region whether it be Syria , Yemen , the Gulf crisis , Palestine , Iraq , Lebanon & even in Libya
where Abu Dhabi obviously leads the Pro-Haftar camp in support of the military putschists against the UN-recognised government .
By drawing a red line in Sirte & Jufra , SiSi is actually banking on the Russian role – not on the strength of Egypt or it's military – with the hope that he could score free gains out of Moscow’s which is stalling the progress of the GNA forces to Sirte & Jufra .
SiSi must have calculated that if GNA forces decided to stop , he can claim that his threat of military intervention is the reason behind it & boost his image as a power-player in the Libyan file without actually risking anything .
The other factor is that SiSi & the military establishment have been under pressure from UAE to get directly involved in Libya . Many Egyptians are already afraid that UAE is driving Egypt into a quagmire in Libya the way it drove Saudi Arabia into the Yemeni swamp .
Since SiSi’s military coup in Egypt in 2013 , Abu Dhabi has been increasing it's influence in the Egyptian military establishment .
Billions have been pumped in to buy loyalty & influence to the extent that Abu Dhabi is actually seen by many Egyptians as hacking the decision of the military establishment & turning the Egyptian army into a proxy army .
Those who agree with this note that the Egyptian army has been providing services to Saudi Arabia & UAE .
It all started with the 2013 coup against the 1st & only democratically elected president in the history of Egypt , Mohamed Morsi : then the military operations in Sinai which is seen as a part of the “ Deal Of The Century ”,
then the war in Yemen & then the support for Haftar in Libya & so on .
Indeed , Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) attended every opening ceremony of new major military bases . He is also seen as the man behind Egypt’s mega arms deals in the last few years .
Despite Egypt’s dire economic situation , SiSi’s regime has been snapping up imported arms like never before . According to SIPRI , Cairo’s arms imports tripled between 2015–2019 , making it the world’s 3rd-largest arms importer .
These UAE-sponsored arms deals are meant to prop up SiSi’s regime , buy influence in Western capitals especially France & Russia & ensure that those capitals & the Egyptian army return the favour when needed – just like the current situation in Libya .
In the last 6 months or so , Abu Dhabi has been vocal about it's desire to send the Egyptian army to Libya . Figures close to MBZ have been threatening that if Haftar failed in his mission , then the Egyptian army will achieve that mission on his behalf .
They even clearly instigated Cairo to engage in a military confrontation against Türkiye in Libya .
No wonder that UAE & Saudi Arabia were the 1st to support SiSi’s latest military threat to invade Libya .
However , given the aforementioned contradictions to military intervention & the urgency of the Nile-Ethiopia issue , SiSi might find an excuse , after all , to escape from the Emirati trap ,
otherwise , we might just be in waiting for another regional UAE-Saudi-Egypt military fiasco .
