North Korea has been deftly playing its hand of cards since the birth of the state. They know the outside world underestimates them. Why do we continue to be surprised by their technical achievements and their policy plays? 1/

“Sticks and carrots” are not new tools in diplomacy. “Good cop/ bad cop” is a trope. North Korea knows how to play chicken too! 2/

North Korea is playing a long game — a very long game. The more we pounce on the frequent intermittent rises and falls of the relationship, the more we are blind the the truth. North Korea is not backward. North Korea wants what every state wants. 3/

They are using the tools they have, and playing the outside’s fear, uncertainty, and low expectations. Listen to them, learn about them, and you won’t be surprised anymore.

This doesn’t mean that things can’t go wrong. I stay up at night wondering what happens when North Korea misreads a situation and steps over a US redline and vice versa. 5/

There are deals to be had if leaders are willing to be creative and put aside their top knee-jerk negotiating preferences.

Aim for respect and mutual understanding. Focus on nuclear/ conventional risk reduction. Grow economic interdependence. 6/