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Next up in my #2020PlayerBreakdown series for #fantasyfootball is:
Kenyan Drake, RB
Arizona #Cardinals
6’1” 211 lbs
Age: 26
Let’s get started...
Next up in my #2020PlayerBreakdown series for #fantasyfootball is:
Kenyan Drake, RB
Arizona #Cardinals
6’1” 211 lbs
Age: 26
Let’s get started...
2019 Year End Statistics:
Games: 14
Rush: 170
Yds: 817
TD: 8
Y/A: 4.8
Rec: 50
Targets: 68
Yds: 345
TD: 0
Y/R: 6.9
Catch%: 73.5
Touches: 220
Total Yds: 1162
Total TD: 8
Fumbles: 2
Games: 14
Rush: 170
Yds: 817
TD: 8
Y/A: 4.8
Rec: 50
Targets: 68
Yds: 345
TD: 0
Y/R: 6.9
Catch%: 73.5
Touches: 220
Total Yds: 1162
Total TD: 8
Fumbles: 2
Drake finished 2019 w/ 643 rushing yds & 8 TD for ARI in 8 games (after not eclipsing 50 yds over his first 6 games w/ MIA)
He averaged 101.75 ypg w/ ARI & only 58 w/ MIA, totaling 413 yds & 7 TDs in his last 3 games w/ ARI.
Breaking News: Kenyan Drake was misused in Miami.
He averaged 101.75 ypg w/ ARI & only 58 w/ MIA, totaling 413 yds & 7 TDs in his last 3 games w/ ARI.
Breaking News: Kenyan Drake was misused in Miami.
The Drake truthers were treated to a peak of the ceiling & consistency they had always hoped for.
He scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games (and 9.7 in another) while showing improvement every & every week in Kingsbury’s offense. https://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield/status/1242189180387471363
He scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games (and 9.7 in another) while showing improvement every & every week in Kingsbury’s offense. https://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield/status/1242189180387471363
Drake was also a standout in @fboutsiders DYAR/DVOA metrics:
DYAR - gives value of the performance on plays where RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation/opponent & then translated into yardage
Drake’s DYAR was 202 (5th best in the NFL)
DYAR - gives value of the performance on plays where RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation/opponent & then translated into yardage
Drake’s DYAR was 202 (5th best in the NFL)
DVOA - represents value, per play, over an avg RB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance.
Drake finished at 19.7%, which was the 3rd best mark for a RB.
DYAR - RB w/ more value
DVOA - RB w/ more per play
Drake
Drake finished at 19.7%, which was the 3rd best mark for a RB.
DYAR - RB w/ more value
DVOA - RB w/ more per play
Drake
One issue?
While Drake did avg over 100 total yds & a TD per game w/ ARI, he had four of those TD in one game & 4 in his other 7.
He also racked up 226 of his 643 yds w/ ARI on 8 just carries.
Big plays count too, but it’s something to consider & understand.
While Drake did avg over 100 total yds & a TD per game w/ ARI, he had four of those TD in one game & 4 in his other 7.
He also racked up 226 of his 643 yds w/ ARI on 8 just carries.
Big plays count too, but it’s something to consider & understand.
So what should we expect in 2020?
After being traded to ARI, Drake was responsible for 60.7% of ARI rushing yds (including 265 from Kyler).
He also avg’d 3.5 rec, 21 rec, & 5.23 yards per carry. (Johnson/Edmonds combined for 4.20 YPC)
After being traded to ARI, Drake was responsible for 60.7% of ARI rushing yds (including 265 from Kyler).
He also avg’d 3.5 rec, 21 rec, & 5.23 yards per carry. (Johnson/Edmonds combined for 4.20 YPC)
If you tallied the most productive ARI RB each week, prior to the trade, they would have combined to be the RB5 in fantasy.
ARI was producing FPs for RB all of 2019.
Now ship David Johnson off to Houston & give Drake that same OL for an entire season.
ARI was producing FPs for RB all of 2019.
Now ship David Johnson off to Houston & give Drake that same OL for an entire season.
Although ARI avg’d 22.6 ppg, they had difficulty finishing drives.
Drake, & the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, should lead to points, & more RZ touches.
A full workload at typical career efficiency (4.8 ypc in 68 games) should net Drake 1,000+ AP yds & 7-8 TD as a floor
Drake, & the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, should lead to points, & more RZ touches.
A full workload at typical career efficiency (4.8 ypc in 68 games) should net Drake 1,000+ AP yds & 7-8 TD as a floor
Drake was 2nd among RBs in carries from shotgun (79%) for 5.5 YPC (5th-best) & faced 8+ men in box on just 8% of carries (3rd-lowest rate).
This is what the high flying offense of Kingsbury can do for a RB. Similar to how 3WR sets w/ the Rams allowed Gurley to run wild in 2018.
This is what the high flying offense of Kingsbury can do for a RB. Similar to how 3WR sets w/ the Rams allowed Gurley to run wild in 2018.
Defenses are not able to cheat, otherwise they will get burned by Nuk, Larry, Kirk, Drake, or other personel.
But this does make Drake’s ceiling a bit hard to predict.
There are a TON of mouths to feed in the passing game w/ RBs taking up a 19.69% share (9.24% was D.Johnson)
But this does make Drake’s ceiling a bit hard to predict.
There are a TON of mouths to feed in the passing game w/ RBs taking up a 19.69% share (9.24% was D.Johnson)
Drake should see the vast majority of catches out of the backfield, with Chase Edmonds unlikely to be a threat.
But DeAndre Hopkins is in town & brings 148 targets w/ him to join Firzgerald (104) & Christinan Kirk (103).
Will it be exciting? Sure. But very unpredictable.
But DeAndre Hopkins is in town & brings 148 targets w/ him to join Firzgerald (104) & Christinan Kirk (103).
Will it be exciting? Sure. But very unpredictable.
The only thing we can likely bank on is a ton of scoring & increased RZ touches (chart below).
Drake could be in line from anywhere between 7-14 TDs between the air & ground.
DJ converted just 2 of 17 RZ touches for TDs, while Drake took in 6 of 14.
Drake could be in line from anywhere between 7-14 TDs between the air & ground.
DJ converted just 2 of 17 RZ touches for TDs, while Drake took in 6 of 14.
Even w/ DJ on the team last season Drake never played in fewer than 64% of offensive snaps in a game usually high 70’s, low 90’s).
This snap% should not only increase, but given ARI high volume offense, has an exponential value in fantasy football.
(Charts via @HaydenWinks)
This snap% should not only increase, but given ARI high volume offense, has an exponential value in fantasy football.
(Charts via @HaydenWinks)
The interest in Drake is how effective ARI RBs were last year in a time share & underperforming offense.
Johnson:
94 rush
375 yds
36 rec
370 yds
Edmonds:
60 rush
303 yds
12 rec
105 yds
Drake:
123 rush
643 yds
28 rec
171 yds
Now imagine the “ARI RB” was one person
Johnson:
94 rush
375 yds
36 rec
370 yds
Edmonds:
60 rush
303 yds
12 rec
105 yds
Drake:
123 rush
643 yds
28 rec
171 yds
Now imagine the “ARI RB” was one person
Well, maybe not ONE. Edmonds is still going to be on the field after all. But this will be as close to a bell cow situation as we have in today’s NFL.
DJ/Drake combined:
217 rush
1,018 yds
64 rec
541 yds
That is not THAT far off from what could be reality.
DJ/Drake combined:
217 rush
1,018 yds
64 rec
541 yds
That is not THAT far off from what could be reality.
What to expect from Kenyan Drake in 2020:
210 rush
968 rush yds
8 rush TD
58 rec
425 rec yds
3 rec TD
Drake will be one of the few “bell-cows” in the NFL w/ a very safe floor & volitle but intriguing ceiling.
210 rush
968 rush yds
8 rush TD
58 rec
425 rec yds
3 rec TD
Drake will be one of the few “bell-cows” in the NFL w/ a very safe floor & volitle but intriguing ceiling.
