From a piece I wrote I almost 3 years ago (2017), titled "Approaching War Clouds?", where I break down how the Russian annexation of Crimea ushered in a new era of aggressive geopolitics & the role different nations are playing in heating things up:

https://theaxeofthefasces.blogspot.com/2017/07/approaching-war-clouds-war-is-permanent.html

Here is a short brief from 3 years ago with excerpts that may help understand how we find ourselves where we are today- in a highly unstable geopolitical environment.

Do note that this is from 2017 and are insights from the perspective of the ongoing events back then:

"Where did the chaos begin? And what was the flash-point?

Lets observe some of the moves by the major players in the geopolitical arena and how they have contributed to the ongoing friction"

1)RUSSIA:

"It would be difficult to pin-point one geopolitical event as the cause for a chain reaction of aggressive foreign policy the world over, but the 2014 Annexation of Crimea sent shockwaves across the globe & set the tone for policy makers with an interest in E. Ukraine"

"This was a strong message from Putin to his Western adversaries.

He felt that Ukraine belonged exclusively in Russia's sphere of influence & was being pulled away from Russia's reach through a Western-backed coup (Euromaidan protests) and the resulting regime-change."

"The US and its allies responded with heavy sanctions aimed at crippling Russia's economy.

While the sanctions caused the intended damage to the Russian economy, it backfired as a deterrence tool against Moscow, with Putin again baffling analysts by intervening in Syria"

2) TURKEY:

"Having taken their war against Kurds beyond their borders, Turkey has often found itself isolated from its NATO partners and gotten itself in sticky situations like the downing of a Russian jet in November 2015."

"The failed 2019 coup is seen by many as a false flag event which facilitated & justified Erdogan's purge of the Judiciary & the Armed Forces. Add to this, the April referendum centralized & increased Erdogan's power & term limit, making 'democratic dictatorship' of sorts."

"Many believe Turkey has overexerted itself & is waging a war beyond its capabilities.

In the scenario of a war involving itself, may find itself without the backing of its own NATO allies, having lost credibility as a secular and democratic nation in the eyes of the West"

3)India:

"The historically peaceful nation has finally started making ground in foreign policy.

The agenda is to win over neighbours to limit China's influence in:

~Nepal, Myanmar & Bangladesh
~Sri Lanka & Maldives to break China's "String of Pearls" naval encirclement"

4)China
China has been, arguably, the shrewdest of all the major powers around the world.

It has consolidated its control over the South-China Sea by building artificial islands, an area which could well be the flash point of a future conflict.

"Even though China is a passive participant in the Syrian war, The prevention of the establishment of a West-friendly puppet state in Syria is among its many priorities.

China has been being visibly surprised by India's strong and newly aggressive stance at the Sikkim border"

6)Pakistan:

"Pakistan may soon find that it's digging it's own grave.

With 2 clear blocs being created - 1 having US with its NATO & non-NATO allies; with the other having China, Russia & Iran, Pakistan has for too long played choosy with either side at its own convenience."

"At present it purchases arms from both the United States and China and must decide sooner or later where its allegiance lies

The CPEC definitely signals an inclination towards China in Islamabad, but Pakistan is still much of a 'diplomatic prostitute' of sorts"

"While the noisy neighbour weighs its options, India's made up its mind & given clarity to its foreign policy after building relations with Israel. This will create gaps in an already broken relationship with Russia & create tensions with China as being observed presently."

~Fin