Lots of pub based excitement today. Evidently what's been announced will make a big difference to immediate economic output. But we need to be really careful about how we think about the economics of the next few months...

...lots of charts (GDP/hours worked) are going to sharply increase. Some will say "this proves the recovery can be v-shaped". It does not - it merely proves that we are starting from an incredibly low base. Why should we not be relaxed? Some thoughts.

1. The supply hit from the crisis is going to last a lot longer than 4th July. Even with 1m rule that's a big disruption. So are table service only pubs, closed theatres, queues to enter shops (and yes in some cases working from home).

2. For many ongoing fear of the virus will have same effect as restaurants being shut. The last few decades has seen disposable income shift towards older households who (for understandable reasons) are least likely to see their consumption recover swiftly

3. These two facts mean our hospitality sector in particular will remain smaller UNTIL a vaccine/treatment turns up. Those people saying workers will swiftly "be reallocated" to other work fail to appreciate both the timelines that involves or the nature of the workers concerned

4. I am sceptical of people concluding from increased savings over recent months that these will swiftly be converted into consumption - specifically because it's higher income families doing most of the saving, whose consumption is less responsive to having cash

5. The demand side of this crisis is real. Families are already seeing income hits - and many more will as they flow off the Retention Scheme (protecting 90% of family incomes) to Universal Credit (on average protecting under 50%).

This is all on the economics side. I leave others to judge the epidemiology/second wave risks, but clearly policy should be set with an eye to the uncertainty about what comes next, both here and round the world

So what should we do? Policy makers should focus on the level not the rate of change when it comes to economic data, and we should recognise that the job is a long long way from being done when the first pub reopens it's doors (much as I'm looking forward to going through them)