Read on Twitter
1/ Thread about the $TSLA Cybertruck. Bear with me, this is stream of consciousness, and it might become rather longish.
2/ The inspiration for this thread came from @TeslaTunnel. He (she?) has inspired me to follow Jane into the jungle & study the primates. Not just the oft-observed Elon's Flying Monkey species, but the less studied "Must Have Cybertruck" species. https://twitter.com/TeslaTunnel/status/1275234744729468928
3/ First, let's get a few key points out of the way:
First, the Cybertruck will cost far more than promised. Its specifications, except at $100K+, will be far less impressive than promised. That's the $TSLA MO.
First, the Cybertruck will cost far more than promised. Its specifications, except at $100K+, will be far less impressive than promised. That's the $TSLA MO.
4/ Second, how better to inflate apparent demand than setting an absurdly low deposit, and making the deposit refundable? Were I a $TSLA shareholder, I would have ordered multiple copies. I have little doubt many Tesla shareholders have done just that. https://www.tesla.com/order/download-order-agreement?redirect=no&country=US&model_code=mp
5/ Those key points out of the way, let's channel Jane. The Cybertruck will be the heaviest vehicle ever built by $TSLA. Very possibly, the heaviest such vehicle built by any manufacturer. It will have a massive battery. It will look like an urban warrior vehicle.
6/ So, given all the rare earth elements your two- or three-motor version will need, and the further rape of the Earthscape necessary to mine those elements, this is most certainly not about saving the Earth.
7/ In other words, the Cybertruck, $TSLA's very next pump, its pretext for sucking subsidies from Travis County in particular & the State of Texas in general, will be a vehicle utterly at odds with its supposed mission of sustainable transportation.
8/ The Cybertruck is, ironically, an affirmation of the fact that so many, many U.S. consumers want to drive pickup trucks. Phenomenally popular, and profitable, are the Ford F-150, the Chevy Silverado, the Dodge Ram. Not to mention offerings from Honda, Toyota, and Nissan.
9/ In other words, the $TSLA Cybertruck fanatics don't want to save the Earth. (Or, more accurately, they want to appear to be, and pretend to be, saving the Earth, but don't want to rigorously examine whether that's actually the case.)
10/ Rather, they want to ape the behavior (Jane, following along?) of the flyover country fellow citizens. Now, there's some irony for you.
11/ I recently met one of these primates in the wild. Let's call him Primate Specimen 1 (herein, "PS1). While hiking in Utah's spectacular Bryce Canyon, of all places.
12/ I started my hike through The Amphitheater at Bryce Point, and eventually emerged at Sunrise Point, from whence I caught a shuttle bus back to my hotel.There were very few of us on the bus. In the front, PS1, a Park employee, was yammering at the bus driver...
13/ ...about the Cybertruck. PS1 had made two deposits. The first, single motor version, he made as immediatly after the Cybertruck "reveal". PS1 was blissfully unaware of how, in the Tesla jungle, there is no correlation between order of deposits & receipt of vehicle.
14/ As for the second deposit, it was on the high end model, "I can't afford it," acknowledged PS1. (Oh, if he only knew.) "But I'm sure I can sell the deposit at a profit." (Be my guest.)
15/ At this point the driver gently questioned, "Didn't the windows break on that car when they were not supposed to?" PS1 was ready with his answer, mouthing word for word the Muskian explanation: earlier strenuous testing had weakened the windows.
16/ Our driver, once again tip-toeing, asked: "What about the Tesla semi? Didn't I read something about that some time back?"
PS1: "Well, that's on the back burner for now."
(Note: Answer has likely changed since Elon butted heads with Trevor.)
PS1: "Well, that's on the back burner for now."
(Note: Answer has likely changed since Elon butted heads with Trevor.)
17/ Several more questions. Several more answers from PS1. Most prefaced with, "Elon says..."
18/ When we all exited together at the terminus parking lot, PS1 headed to his car. A Tesla Model 3. The only Tesla in the parking lot. The most supremely, absurdly impractical car to own in Utah. And yet... PS1 owned it (or, leased it).
19/ So, dear friends (and frenemies, and enemies), this is why I continue to say shorting $TSLA is a tragically terrible idea right now, unless you are as well-funded, astute, carefully hedged, and as brilliant as @WallStCynic...
20/ ...the world is simply chock full of stupid primates, some even more stupid than PS1. They are just endless, these immensely ill-informed, tragically, congenitally, stupid primates.
21/ Let's leave Jane behind in the jungle with the primates, and ponder: Where will Tesla build its Cybertruck? Here's my view: Tesla badly wants to open a factory in Texas, and abandon California. But, so far, the Texans are not opening their wallets nearly widely enough.
22/ Will Texas be adequately seduced by the grandiloquent promises of the Greatest Visionary (Charlatan) of Our Era? The temptation must be enormous. Consider how many states have squandered riches in hopes of attracting jobs, only later to be disappointed.
23/ Regardless, there can & will be no Cybertruck that PS1 (or any other primate) can purchase until, at the earliest, 2022. By then, Tesla in particular, and the world in general, will look far more changed & strange than any of us can possibly today imagine.
24/ The easy part is realizing we must all wait until the Day of Reckoning comes. The hard part is understanding what the week before will look like. I intend to give this more thought. Trade with great care, $tslaq.
