So given there is a lot of talk about Siberia and the historic heatwave on many different channels, I think I should provide some additional information which is not be shared for one reason or another. @WeatherProf feel free to share.
So to understand what is happening in our atmosphere, you have to look at all factors that are evolving. If you only focus on one subset, well you miss the complete picture.
Now, as many of you know, we have been going through a solar minimum, very much like in 2008-2011, and we have experienced in some cases some record-breaking stretches of quiet solar activity via a lack of sunspots.
Now there are some who incorrectly try to connect the solar activity to global temperatures. This is not a 1:1 relationship. Far more complicated. If you are looking for some "magical global cooling" you need a Grand Solar Minimum plus some assistance from volcanic activity.
HOWEVER, this activity does influence our ionosphere and stratosphere far more quickly and there are some theories that solar activity may influence the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation.
The increase of Coronal Hole activity also been theorized to influence an increase of cloud nuclei, especially around the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. So why is all of this important?
Well, over the past few years we have been hearing about an increase in heatwaves in Siberia and active weather around the globe. We have certainly seen an increase in high latitude blocking, especially this Summer. So what gives?
So when we see this low solar activity, we tend to see an increased potential in warming in the stratosphere which can create some interesting anomalies.
So, when the stratosphere warms, the stratosphere expands. However, our atmosphere can not expand into space, so the stratosphere presses down and compresses the troposphere, where we live. This leads to below normal heights and pockets of colder air.
The reverse is true when we have a cooling stratosphere. The stratosphere contracts, the troposphere expands, and we see pockets of warm air.
So when we see the current stratospheric environment, we see some pretty impressive warming for this time of year from 10 MB to 100 MB.
This environment is why we have been observing upper-level low-pressure systems, especially around the Aleutian Islands and East coast, and powerful ridges around the Arctic and Siberia. Remember, the atmosphere is always trying to reach a balance!
So this is why we are seeing these anomalies show up! This is the trigger! We would have seen this PATTERN regardless of our influence. So how does CO2 come into play? Glad you asked!
Adding CO2 in this environment is like adding steroids to a bodybuilder. When you inject CO2 above normal levels into this environment you enhance the warming that is possible, thus the record-breaking temperatures.
Now, remember, the atmosphere will try to create a balance, so you can bet you'll either find a powerful cold anomaly or several smaller anomalies that create an atmospheric balance together, which is exactly what we are seeing.
Want to really be concerned? Okay, all this warming in Siberia is going to alter the state of Permafrost in Siberia which we know has a lot of Methane stocked up. You think CO2 is a problem? Methane is 100 times worse and something we do not want to see.
So that's the whole story. The pattern itself would have happened regardless and likely has in the past. Our influences enhance the process.
You can follow @nynjpaweather.
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