For those wondering how voting will work at one (huge) voting place in Louisville Tuesday & how turnout may effect Dem #kysen primary, here’s some context from turnout numbers in recent years compared numbers from last week on mailed absentee ballots plus early voters (1/2)

Jefferson Co. voter turnout (total; Dems)

2016: 138,619; 110,269
2018: 104,924; 75,555
2019: 133,405; 98,515

Jefferson County, KY number of absentee ballots mailed to voters plus in person early voters

2020: 222,705; ???

(we don’t know how many will mail ballots back)(2/2)

For a little more context, here’s Jefferson County’s biggest turnout in many years, the 2008 (Barack Obama) primary:

192,630 total
144,871 Democrats

I can’t 100% rule out some kind of long-lined voting fiasco at the Fairgrounds on Tuesday, but if that does happen it would mean completely shattering modern era turnout records here (and probably every polling model being used now).

Now, if you want to talk about how voting in Louisville or the rest of Kentucky in the general election this fall is going to play out — where there currently is no legal framework set up for no excuse mail-in absentee voting —- you may have something there.