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1/Thread: about the parliamentary elections in Lebanon
Will 17 October bring a big change to the parliamentary scene?
Do independents have any chance of being a major force in the Lebanese political scene?
Will 17 October bring a big change to the parliamentary scene?
Do independents have any chance of being a major force in the Lebanese political scene?
2/Since 2005 we've had 3 elections. If the rules of the game were upheld, we should be having our 5th elections next year (2005-2009-2013-2017-2021)
We went 9 years without elections from 2009 – 2018
Is there a guarantee that we will have elections in 2022 or hopefully earlier?
We went 9 years without elections from 2009 – 2018
Is there a guarantee that we will have elections in 2022 or hopefully earlier?
3/In the 3 elections held since 2005 the results have slightly changed.
If we take the overall results, Future leads with 85 seats, followed by FPM 56.
“Other” consists of those who have not had more than 5 seats total.
The Shiite duo of Amal and Hezbollah are 3rd and 4th.
If we take the overall results, Future leads with 85 seats, followed by FPM 56.
“Other” consists of those who have not had more than 5 seats total.
The Shiite duo of Amal and Hezbollah are 3rd and 4th.
4/How many Lebanese could vote in 2018?
3,746,327 – This is the number of registered voters.
How many voted? Nearly 50% around 1,862,000.
3,746,327 – This is the number of registered voters.
How many voted? Nearly 50% around 1,862,000.
5/If we break the 2018 elections by district or Mohafaza, here are the number of voters:
South: 868,094
Mount Lebanon: 831,136
Beirut: 477,751
North: 862,456
Bekaa:706,890
South: 868,094
Mount Lebanon: 831,136
Beirut: 477,751
North: 862,456
Bekaa:706,890
6/If we break it by confession, here are the number of voters:
7/How did the independents or civil society fair? Horribly!
Only 4% of the votes went to independents or civil society.
This is around 75,000 voters in all of Lebanon!
In the South, North and the Bekaa it was even worth!
Only 4% of the votes went to independents or civil society.
This is around 75,000 voters in all of Lebanon!
In the South, North and the Bekaa it was even worth!
8/How would independents fair today?
Even if the 75,000 votes triple, very unlikely.
They would only constitute 12% of the total votes.
Under the current law, if we take on average 30,000 votes per seat with 225,000 voting independents.
Independents will get 7 or 8 seats.
Even if the 75,000 votes triple, very unlikely.
They would only constitute 12% of the total votes.
Under the current law, if we take on average 30,000 votes per seat with 225,000 voting independents.
Independents will get 7 or 8 seats.
9/Elections single district if independent votes triple?
12% of 128 seats would go to independents.
This is about 15 seats
Better but still very far from the possibility of making any change. And this is assuming that the independents will form a cohesive unit. Highly unlikely
12% of 128 seats would go to independents.
This is about 15 seats
Better but still very far from the possibility of making any change. And this is assuming that the independents will form a cohesive unit. Highly unlikely
10/Here’s how single district elections might look like and why I oppose it:
Hezbollah – 30 seats
Amal – 20 seats
Future – 18 seats
Independents – 15 seats
FPM – 14 seats
LF – 14 seats
PSP – 7 seats
Kataeb – 3 seats
Mikati – Marada – Tashnag each 2 seats
SSNP – 1 seat
Hezbollah – 30 seats
Amal – 20 seats
Future – 18 seats
Independents – 15 seats
FPM – 14 seats
LF – 14 seats
PSP – 7 seats
Kataeb – 3 seats
Mikati – Marada – Tashnag each 2 seats
SSNP – 1 seat
11/What is the solution?
For me it is a decentralized system where power is distributed among the Kadaas.
But this discussion is for another day.
For me it is a decentralized system where power is distributed among the Kadaas.
But this discussion is for another day.
