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This article still has so many gems. Most revelations about the Dutch COVID19 fiasco keep bringing us back to https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
Its model assumptions are discussed here: https://www.containmentnu.nl/en/articles/waarom-de-rivm-modellen-uitgaan-van-immuniteitsopbouw-en-test-trace-isolate-uitsluiten
2 Dutch authors:
- Hans Heesterbeek is a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the dept of Veterinary Medicine (farm animals)
- Don Klinkenberg is an RIVM modeller specialised in veterinary medicine too, promoted on mathematical modelling for swine flue
- Hans Heesterbeek is a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the dept of Veterinary Medicine (farm animals)
- Don Klinkenberg is an RIVM modeller specialised in veterinary medicine too, promoted on mathematical modelling for swine flue
One mystery has been: why do RIVM experts rely on mathematical modelling, vaccines and social distancing?
Why does contact tracing - calling people and asking them to quarantine – not seem to exist to them?
Well, pigs sure as hell don't pick up the phone when you call 'em
Why does contact tracing - calling people and asking them to quarantine – not seem to exist to them?
Well, pigs sure as hell don't pick up the phone when you call 'em
(Our main virologist Marion Koopmans has a background in veterinary virology as well.)
And the models used by RIVM assume immunity build-up. It's built-in. But they can't handle preventive testing and contact tracing.
Another insight is that the entire field of veterinary medicine and vaccine making is operationally, ethically, philosophically fundamentally different from human public health.
We don't create animal vaccines from an animal rights perspective
We don't create animal vaccines from an animal rights perspective
Veterinary medicine has historically grown to support the burgeoning economic interests of factory farming. It is a necessary byproduct of an exquisitely sinister branch of capitalism. Its purpose is to protect the economic system, not the ones who suffer from infectious diseases
Infectious disease management dominated by virologists and modellers who have made their careers in veterinary medicine, may at the very least tend to prefer solutions that might be considered as benefiting 'the economy' more than protecting individual people
Additionally, it may come as no surprise that they may tend to underestimate the effect of lockdowns and social distancing (an R decrease of 25% was expected, it turned out to be 60-70%) and have no way to factor in contact tracing
Alright, now a couple of quotes from that same articles that I have been returning to as well. have been sending me shivers down my spine for months, and I don't know what to make of it – or I don't want to know
"The number of cases of COVID-19 are falling quickly in China, but a site for phase 3 vaccine trials needs to be in a location where there is ongoing transmission of the disease."
"Manufacturing at scale requires one or more of the big vaccine manufacturers to take up the challenge and work closely with the biotechnology companies who are developing vaccine candidates."
Our own vaccine cancidate is being fast-tracked tested on thousands of people in Brazil, where Bolsonero also seemed to just let the virus spread on purpose. And we're playing 'a very important part' https://www.parool.nl/nederland/nederland-gaat-zeer-belangrijke-rol-spelen-bij-productie-veelbelovend-vaccin~bd4524a4/
"De belangrijkste bottleneck richting een werkend vaccin - naast de vraag of het straks werkt - is misschien wel het vinden van een geschikte groep mensen om het vaccin op te testen. Nu het virus in veel landen wat aan het luwen is, is dat lastig"
... "laat AstraZeneca-CEO Pascal Soriot doorschemeren. “Straks hebben we een vaccin waarvan we bijna zeker weten dat het werkt, maar hebben we niet genoeg mensen om het op te testen. Dat zou heel erg teleurstellend zijn.”
So, it is apparently in our countries best interest to let the virus spread *in Brazil* and not allow Bolsonero to pursue containment *in Brazil* so we can get our vaccine in time.
Makes you wonder what kind of lobbying tactics AstraZeneca might employ to finish testing there
Makes you wonder what kind of lobbying tactics AstraZeneca might employ to finish testing there
