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Extracted from email to @lucyfrazermp 19/6/20 - "A recent survey of senior business figures suggests that more than 80% are unpersuaded that the pandemic has been at all well handled by your Government. - 1/
- Global comparisons (notably UK deaths per million of population) are also patently unfavourable, especially as the UK 'followed' earlier infection patterns that had been well flagged - notably in Asia and Europe. - 2/
- Yes, the NHS has not (generally!) been overwhelmed, but 'hospital passes' of untested Covid Carriers back to Care Homes possibly speak to an uglier reality? coming after our overly slow decision on initial lockdown. - 3/
- In essence, Boris Johnson chose 'English Exceptionalism and Herd Immunity' and both backfired. The oft-repeated contention that a 'protective ring' was put around Care Home 'from the start' now looks risible. - 4/
- Next, your Government appears to have already rejected the opportunity to extend transition? in terms of our EU exit. If true? this is an extremely high risk strategy! - 5/
- Some appear to believe that 'forcing the issue' gives us leverage between now and 31/12/20? My own take is that we've lost leverage at every key stage since Mrs May's ill-judged Lancaster House speech in Jan'17 - largely a Supreme Court 'upstaging stunt'. - 6/
- Triggering Article50 without either detailed planning, risk analyses or a draft deal in place, was another especially huge mistake. - 7/
- All that said, we are where we are NOW - 'Out' and in transition. If Covid doesn't cause us to reconsider? then nothing will! And this 'deal' (or not?) matters greatly! Because, IF we go into January 2021 'without one' - we lose the final opportunity. - 8/
- I say this as one who believes that we won't be 'going back in' (to the #EU) - much as I would never have agreed to come out. So this 'deal' matters! If there isn't one? because we think we can fly without? then we'll find out the hard way over many decades to come. - 9/
- So, IF we do fail to take the opportunity to extend, now, (by 30/6/20) it will be hard to defend later claims of gross recklessness - unless a 'No Deal' is really the 'Plan A', after all? - as many of us suspect! - 10/
- Reports coming out of EU27 suggest they'll close ranks and divert internal attention to 'No Deal' and 'Other Markets', and to the steps they'll presumably take to mitigate the economic impact of that scenario on those member states most affected - e.g. Eire, Belgium etc. -11/
- Unfortunately the hard right of your own Party has long written a false narrative for itself, based on 'They need us more' etc. We'll find out in six months! - 12/
- To be clear, I still pray for a mutually reasonable & acceptable exit deal and (in essence) I want to be wrong in my reading that we've largely blown ourselves out of the water, on this matter, thus far. - 13/
- Too many different people (on the UK 'side') have wasted too much precious time in the hope that 'limited time' will concentrate EU minds. I seriously doubt that it will! Instead, I figure that we'll run of road - pretty much as they run out of patience." - 14/end.
