Pre-pandemic, pundits handicapping this election gave Trump the edge because of the economy, but in fact even then his position was weak and he had no chance to win the popular vote. His best hope has always been to eke out another Electoral College win. 1/n

Running in 2016 as an unorthodox candidate with a blank slate, his message of hate & division, mixed in with the very occasional feint to the left to befuddle dimbulbs like Ryan Grim and Chris Hayes, got him to 46% and 80k votes in MI, WI, and PA got him over 270 electoral. 2/n

This was with an opponent who'd been demonized by Republicans & their water-carriers in the media for a quarter century, not to mention by the Bernie campaign and its disgraceful, very public representatives who supported the charlatan Jill Stein. 3/n

Even with a good economy - which of course was inherited, but still something he got undue credit for - his approval rating has been stuck in the low 40's for his whole term. This is basically his 46% vote share minus those who've had buyer's remorse. 4/n

Given his divisive & inept years of governance, heading into 2020 he was no longer a blank slate, but very well defined. His populist feints weren't going to work this time. He had little hope of growing his vote share beyond 46% and next to no hope of exceeding it. 5/n

That meant, as it did in 2016, he'd have to win virtually all of the swing states again. MI and PA were already looking dicey for him. A Democratic challenger would only have to win those plus one more state to win the EC. 6/n

So his road to reelection was always going to be tough, insane claims about being "on a glide path" notwithstanding. His best-case scenario was a Democratic opponent he could effectively label as an extremist. A strong 3rd party run would also help him. 7/n

None of that materialized. He got Biden for an opponent - the man Trump feared so badly, he committed impeachable offenses trying to preemptively undercut his campaign. That didn't work either. He was already in deep trouble before COVID-19. 8/n

And then along came the pandemic, his botched response to it, the economic meltdown, the George Floyd murder & protests, and he's continued to botch it all. (Not to mention the ramp & water glass defeats.) He's gone from having trouble to having a disaster on his hands. 9/n

The only question in my mind is if he'll stick it out, or cut and run. His fear of prosecution might make him stick it out and try to steal the election in plain sight. But the humiliation of the certain landslide defeat may overwhelm that consideration & cause him to quit. 10/n

He's been a coward, a cheat, a quitter, and a criminal for his entire life. He's never faced any consequences until now. It's really something to be watching him go out with a whimper, not a bang, but of course we still have to fear what desperation might drive him to do. 11/n

Still, there's nothing to say about tonight other than that it was great watching him be massively humiliated, brought down by both his own hubris and that of the sycophants around him. F them all, and good night to you, friends. 12/12