It’s very far from unexpected, but look at the National US cases ticking up per the @nytimes. A couple comments on that 1/n

first the comparison with the spring - that was mostly the NE and even within there, concentrated in NYC. It's different now. Those cases are scattered all over the country. Where once there were a few outbreaks, there are now hundreds if not more 2/n

right now none of those outbreaks are at remotely the scale of those we've seen, but the thing about outbreaks is they tend to grow. And now there are so many of them, they will be (even) harder to keep a lid on 3/n

On age - yes it looks like some places (eg FL) are doing a much better job at finding cases in younger age groups. This is not a good sign on its own, as it usually reflects growing community transmission and risk to more vulnerable groups. Those cases need to be isolated 4/n

And obviously we should be worried about severe illness and deaths. These lag behind infections, and are concentrated in older people and those with other risk factors. We can expect them - although not clear when given the stage of the outbreaks now 5/n

I felt cautious a few weeks ago, uncertain about how much transmission was really going on, given limited testing and reasonable questions about transmission in the summer months. But *looks* like a turn for the worse. Hope I am wrong 6/end