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The inevitable annihilation of the APC in 2023 !
A Thread
A Thread
The APC was a merger between two major regional parties and others to form a national coalition with the sole aim of wrestling power from the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan , The CPC ( North ) & ACN ( Southwest ) The party was able to win largely
due to the popularity of its candidate Muhammadu Buhari who has constantly gotten 12M + votes in the Northern Region which holds the nations largest voting populace and for the first time ever winning states outside the North thanks to Asiwaju Tinubu’s political will in the SW
Although results showed that Buhari still wins with 12,991,728 against jonathan’s 12,853,162 even if had gotten zero votes in the southwest in 2015 , no one can downplay or deny Bola Tinubu and SW APC’s contribution to Buhari’s victory in 2015 !
Buhari was able to win again in 2019 with majority votes, this time around results showed he’d still win even if he had gotten zero votes in the SW even if all the votes he got in the SW were added to that of Atiku who came second he’d still only lose by a mere “ 144,031 “ votes
Buhari is on course to complete his 8 year term in 2023. It is only reasonable and a no brainer that the party produces its candidate from the southwest for the 2023 General elections , make no mistake the two big guns from the party in the region are Asiwaju Tinubu and largely
Vice President Yemi Osinbajo , The PDP in a bid to wrestle power will most likely pick its candidate from the North again to upset APC’s political calculations. Asiwaju Tinubu seems to be the forefront runner for the party’s ticket in 2023 he will most definitely come up against
a northern candidate from the PDP. Tinubu is the muscle of the APC there’s no soul within the APC that can pull his weight within the ranks. As sad as it sounds Asiwaju is not likely to win any state outside the South West at best he wins one or two in the NC (highly unlikely)
The Game changer for PDP 2023 is that Buhari’s 12 Million votes no longer exist. There isn’t a ticket that’ll upset these facts on the ground, whoever APC fields is likely to lose because the support coming from the SW will cease to exist without the candidate emerging from there
He’ll not only lose in the North , But will most likely lose in the southwest too because southwest APC will certainly not settle for the VP slot again , in case anyone from the North gets the ticket.
It’s not far fetched to expect the PDP to field Alhaji Atiku Abubakar being its candidate in 2019 and also its most popular candidate across the 6 Geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Why i stated that APC’s candidate whoever it may be will likely lose the North is because
no one within the APC ranks has half the popularity of Muhammadu Buhari in the North , in essence no one within the APC ranks can guarantee you at least 7 Million Votes from the region, No one is as popular as Atiku Abubakar within the APC ranks not in the north nor the south
It’s not even about Atiku , Any candidate The PDP fields from the North will defeat whoever the APC fields , This is because the PDP are going into this election with 11 states guaranteed victory in SS & SE, and it’s candidate will be facing a candidate likely from the southwest
How does Tinubu , Osinbajo or anyone else wrestle Atiku or any other PDP big shot in the North and succeed , Even Buhari at the peak of his popularity lost states like Taraba , Adamawa , Benue , Plateau , Oyo , Osun and even the seat of power , The FCT in 2019
Atiku won 17 states + FCT out of 36 states that’s just one state short of half of 36 which is 18. The reality on ground is that without Buhari on the ballot with those votes he brings to the table it’s just a non-starter for the APC and a battle in futility even before it begins.
It takes a miracle from GOD to stop the inevitable !
