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Campaigns are series of tough budget decisions. Despite the millions raised, all campaigns make incredibly difficult choices on where to spend, or not spend, money. Right now, @realDonaldTrump and team are facing tough calls because too many unexpected swing states are in play.
I am tagging political friends who live(d) in particular states in hopes they can add some color beyond mine. If you have thoughts on any state, please jump in as well. I am also tagging some other brilliant hacks. Chime in please! I am pulling history from 1992 forward.
Lets go down the @FiveThirtyEight list and discuss the issues for the Trump reelection campaign. Colorado is +17% Biden (!) and trending blue, as it has not voted for a GOP Pres. candidate since McCain. Seems to be time to consider if it is still a swing. https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/colorado-turned-blue-but-will-it-last/article_82d0c934-2fa6-5820-8f79-e724390ad74e.html
Maine split its Electoral College (EC) votes, with 3 for Clinton and one for Trump in '16. Which is FASCINATING. But going back to 1992, it has been a fairly solid Dem state....despite recent Governors. Biden +13.5%.
New Mexico went with Bush in just 2004, but not 2000, but has otherwise voted D since 1992. Biden +13%. Like CO, hard to see this as much of a swing state. @aliesharuiz
Virginia has voted for the D Presidential candidate since 2008. That said, they voted all Republican before that, including Clinton 1992. States switch over time for both parties, but I bet the GOP still winces a bit for VA. Biden +10.5% @Chris_Bast
Michigan! Voted for the D candidate every time...except for 2016. Big part of Trump's EC win and a huge , very close, upset in '16. MI was always expected to be a fight in '20, but I suspect being +10% @joebiden in mid June was not in the Trump reelection plan.
Nevada last voted for the GOP Presidential candidate in 2000 and 2004. Not a huge shock to be polling well for +8% for Biden and like CO, might be time to start considering NV a blue state. @LyleDMCanceko https://www.thedailybeast.com/dont-look-now-but-the-mountain-west-is-turning-blue
New Hampshire last voted for a GOP Presidential candidate, Bush, in 2000 but not 2004. Which I think is the only state to switch red to blue for Bush. Maybe Kerry being from MA? +7.7% Biden. @JoePaceforNH
Florida Man has nothing on the politics of the Sunshine State. FL is essentially +7% for Biden. Definition of swing state with a 96, 2000, and 2012 Dem vote, but a BIG part of Trump 2016 with 1.5% win. Like MI, FL is making Trump's folks reach for the Rolaids or stronger stuff.
Minnesota is a swing state in many ways, but has voted for the Dem candidate for President since 1992 and is +6.5% Biden. Should it be on this swing state list? @RazPollex
Wisconsin, like MI, was a very close, heartbreaking loss of Clinton '16. Had not voted for an R for Pres since '84. (OK, broke my '92 promise) Currently +6.5% for Biden and like MI, Trumps team expected a close fight but not to be down this much in June. @JMIwi @argostrategies
Pennsylvania at +5.3% Biden is part of the trio, along with MI/WI where Clinton suffered critical, close losses in '16. Again, Trump knew this was where he would be fighting for reelection, but they also are likely surprised to now be this far down here as well. @CaiaCaldwell
Arizona? Wait, back up. Who? Actually voted for Bill Clinton in '96, and like NH, was the only state that year who went from R to D from '92. Long Republican history but a 3.5% Trump's win in '16 shows some give. Likely a surprise to Trump to now be +4% for Biden. @argostrategies
North Carolina up +3% for Biden. In our window of time from '92, NC only voted D in the Obama Demolition in 2008. But is is a swing state in many ways and also an unplanned thorn in the Trump budget's side if the lead holds much longer.
Ohio. Modern Ds (at least me) forgot OH voted D for President in '92 '96 '08 '12! Now at +3% Biden, it is pretty likely to be a surprise to the reelection plan as he won here +8% in '16.
Georgia was on zero D Bingo cards for a '20 fight. (Did go for Bill Clinton in '92) @staceyabrams controversial loss in 2018 for Gov changed everything. Biden is at +1% but Trump likely didn't plan on spending ANY money in GA and may have to now.
Iowa has a much bluer history of voting for President than a lot (ok me) think. '92 '96 '00 '08 '12 all D years. Biden is -.6% (note the decimal) which is not a champagne cork poll number except...now Trump could need to spend money here. He won the state by nearly 10% in '16.
Texas is the last (and up with GA for most surprising) swing state. Biden is down just .7% and again it is the '18 @BetoORourke narrow loss that foretold a '20 fight that neither party really expected post '16. (Last D vote for Pres was Carter '76) @grumpasaurus @ameseh
