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I’ve been thinking a lot about Prime Minister Modi’s speech yesterday. Is it realistic to expect any leader to publically accept an intrusion into his country’s territory? Seen through this lens, the PM’s comments indicate three possibilities in my estimation. THREAD 1/
1. The PM or his speechwriter bungled the communication or his comments were taken out of context, since what was released was only a snippet of the speech he made at the All Parties Meeting. 2/
2. Building on Amb. @NMenonRao ‘s tweets, the statement was perhaps a trial balloon aimed at gauging public reaction to a potential border settlement with China, in which India would give up its claims in the western sector (Ladakh) for China to give up claims in the east (AP) 3/
3. The statement was a smoke screen to throw China off the scent of a response that may be coming. 4/
Given the government’s clarification on the PM’s statement, option 1 is likely. But why did it take more than 12 hours to issue a clarification? Which brings me to...5/
Perhaps the clarification was meant to walk back internally within the establishment as well publicly the consideration of option 2. Or...6/
It was meant to deliberately sow confusion in the minds of Chinese strategists about India’s position and play into the Chinese narrative of domestic infighting in a democracy that frustrates strong and decisive action. 7/
My sense is it’s option 3, but let’s wait and watch how things unfold in the coming days. END
Addendum: Please excuse typos in the tweets. Twitter *really* needs an edit button.
